COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Tuesday, May 11

Yesterday's
active cases

18,071,250

Recent
growth rate
*

-0.5%

Doubling
time

-

2 week
forecast

~17,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 5,311 136 2.3% 30 days ~7,300
Algeria 34,399 784 0.2% - ~35,000
Andorra 281 3637 -4.3% - -
Argentina 260,242 5758 -0.6% - ~240,000
Armenia 9,904 3342 -3.4% - ~6,100
Australia 263 10 -0.1% - ~300
Austria 16,063 1784 -4.0% - ~9,100
Azerbaijan 15,378 1517 -5.0% - ~7,500
Bahrain 13,989 8221 3.2% 22.1 days ~22,000
Bangladesh 50,778 308 -2.7% - ~35,000
Belarus 6,870 727 -0.2% - ~6,600
Belgium 103,512 8931 -0.1% - ~100,000
Bolivia 43,830 3755 0.7% 96 days ~48,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 26,308 8019 -1.5% - ~21,000
Brazil 1,031,469 4853 -0.4% - ~970,000
Bulgaria 42,838 6165 -1.1% - ~36,000
Cameroon 3,297 124 0.0% - ~3,300
Canada 79,826 2115 -0.5% - ~74,000
Central African Republic 1,469 304 1.3% 55.3 days ~1,800
Chile 36,659 1918 -1.6% - ~29,000
China 298 0 -0.9% - ~300
Colombia 101,405 1993 -1.3% - ~85,000
Costa Rica 53,260 10455 1.6% 42.4 days ~67,000
Côte d'Ivoire 278 11 1.3% 51.7 days ~300
Croatia 8,251 2010 -6.7% - ~3,100
Cuba 6,044 534 1.0% 67.6 days ~7,000
Cyprus 30,310 25104 1.5% 46.5 days ~37,000
Czech Republic 34,798 3249 -3.2% - ~22,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 3,144 35 1.2% 56.4 days ~3,700
Denmark 11,322 1955 1.9% 36.7 days ~15,000
Djibouti 74 75 -7.3% - -
Dominican Republic 36,605 3374 0.2% - ~38,000
Ecuador 39,940 2264 0.7% 94.2 days ~44,000
Egypt 47,148 461 0.9% 81.7 days ~53,000
El Salvador 2,301 355 0.3% 221.7 days ~2,400
Equatorial Guinea 303 216 0.0% - ~300
Estonia 8,109 6113 -1.3% - ~6,700
Ethiopia 47,730 415 -1.4% - ~39,000
Finland 41,944 7570 0.5% 145.9 days ~45,000
France 756,302 11587 -2.6% - ~520,000
French Guiana 10,543 35298 1.2% 58.1 days ~12,000
Gabon 3,371 1515 0.2% - ~3,500
Germany 274,273 3274 -1.6% - ~220,000
Ghana 1,531 49 -0.1% - ~1,500
Greece 29,357 2817 1.6% 44.2 days ~37,000
Guatemala 12,967 724 -2.8% - ~8,800
Guinea 2,252 171 -0.7% - ~2,000
Guinea-Bissau 274 139 -1.8% - ~200
Haiti 657 58 0.4% 177.9 days ~700
Honduras 133,138 13442 0.4% 180.5 days ~140,000
Hong Kong 106 14 -3.0% - -
Hungary 188,083 19470 -2.5% - ~130,000
Iceland 100 293 -5.5% - -
India 3,720,695 2696 1.3% 54 days ~4,500,000
Indonesia 96,742 354 -0.3% - ~92,000
Iran 470,766 5605 0.0% - ~470,000
Iraq 90,221 2243 -1.7% - ~71,000
Ireland 12,546 2541 -0.2% - ~12,000
Israel 959 111 -5.1% - ~500
Italy 373,670 6180 -1.6% - ~300,000
Japan 69,615 550 1.9% 36.8 days ~91,000
Kazakhstan 41,275 2198 -0.2% - ~40,000
Kenya 48,415 900 0.2% - ~50,000
Kuwait 13,511 3164 -1.3% - ~11,000
Kyrgyzstan 5,178 794 1.1% 65.4 days ~6,000
Latvia 8,874 4705 1.1% 64.3 days ~10,000
Lebanon 38,508 5642 -3.4% - ~24,000
Lithuania 22,359 8213 1.4% 48.8 days ~27,000
Luxembourg 2,167 3462 -2.6% - ~1,500
Macedonia 10,572 5074 -3.4% - ~6,600
Madagascar 2,178 79 -7.5% - ~730
Malaysia 37,396 1155 2.5% 27.8 days ~53,000
Maldives 10,385 19212 8.1% 8.9 days ~31,000
Mali 4,574 226 -0.4% - ~4,300
Mauritania 317 68 1.8% 39.2 days ~400
Mayotte 17,000 62313 0.0% - ~17,000
Mexico 260,574 2021 0.0% - ~260,000
Moldova 3,109 771 -5.1% - ~1,500
Morocco 3,699 100 -1.8% - ~2,800
Nepal 93,141 3197 8.9% 8.2 days ~310,000
New Zealand
Nicaragua 2,581 390 0.0% - ~2,600
Niger 226 9 2.6% 26.6 days ~300
Nigeria 7,085 34 -0.2% - ~6,900
Norway 27,303 5036 1.7% 41.3 days ~35,000
Oman 14,392 2818 -2.3% - ~10,000
Pakistan 80,375 364 -1.3% - ~66,000
Panama 4,278 991 0.8% 82.8 days ~4,800
Paraguay 43,888 6153 0.2% - ~45,000
Peru 68,332 2072 8.2% 8.8 days ~210,000
Philippines 59,897 547 -2.7% - ~41,000
Poland 189,015 4994 -1.7% - ~150,000
Portugal 22,102 2168 -0.6% - ~20,000
Qatar 8,325 2890 -6.2% - ~3,400
Romania 22,605 1175 -4.7% - ~12,000
Russia 272,174 1865 0.2% - ~280,000
Saudi Arabia 9,469 272 -0.5% - ~8,800
Senegal 184 11 1.4% 49.9 days ~200
Serbia 30,507 3492 -4.5% - ~16,000
Singapore 394 67 0.2% - ~400
Slovakia 5,744 1052 -2.8% - ~3,800
Slovenia 8,949 4305 -0.8% - ~8,000
Somalia 7,477 470 0.1% - ~7,600
South Africa 25,549 431 1.7% 41.2 days ~32,000
South Korea 8,053 157 -0.4% - ~7,600
Sri Lanka 22,092 1032 6.1% 11.7 days ~51,000
Sudan 3,877 88 0.0% - ~3,900
Switzerland 56,671 6548 -0.3% - ~54,000
Thailand 29,376 421 0.3% 216.7 days ~31,000
Tunisia 30,735 2601 -2.5% - ~22,000
Turkey 257,754 3056 -4.0% - ~140,000
Uganda 67 1 18.8% 4 days ~750
Ukraine 307,062 7021 -1.9% - ~240,000
United Arab Emirates 18,104 1830 0.1% - ~18,000
United States 6,411,702 19371 -0.4% - ~6,100,000
Uzbekistan 3,805 114 1.5% 45.2 days ~4,700
Venezuela 14,783 520 -1.1% - ~13,000
The World** 18,071,250 2324 -0.5% - ~17,000,000
Zambia 354 19 -1.6% - ~300
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.