COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Wednesday, December 08

Yesterday's
active cases

21,330,051

Recent
growth rate
*

0.6%

Doubling
time

114.9 days

2 week
forecast

~23,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 9,280 233 -0.1% - ~9,100
Algeria 60,234 1350 0.1% - ~61,000
Andorra 2,100 27136 10.0% 7.3 days ~8,000
Angola 215 6 1.0% 72.4 days ~200
Argentina 24,005 526 2.9% 24.3 days ~36,000
Armenia 10,934 3683 -3.7% - ~6,400
Australia 16,335 633 3.4% 20.4 days ~26,000
Austria 96,128 10614 -4.8% - ~48,000
Azerbaijan 23,114 2260 -1.4% - ~19,000
Bahrain 335 190 1.6% 44.7 days ~400
Bangladesh 7,093 43 -0.6% - ~6,500
Belarus 5,943 629 -3.1% - ~3,800
Belgium 454,291 39031 2.5% 28.4 days ~640,000
Bolivia 26,637 2252 0.6% 125 days ~29,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 74,147 22740 0.9% 74 days ~85,000
Brazil 155,388 726 -1.4% - ~130,000
Bulgaria 99,663 14451 -0.5% - ~92,000
Cambodia 677 40 -0.2% - ~700
Cameroon 2,628 97 0.0% - ~2,600
Canada 29,203 767 0.8% 82 days ~33,000
Central African Republic 4,782 973 0.0% - ~4,800
Chile 66,019 3425 -0.4% - ~62,000
China 1,107 1 3.6% 19.5 days ~1,800
Colombia 30,148 586 -0.4% - ~28,000
Costa Rica 3,601 701 -11.8% - ~600
Côte d'Ivoire 248 9 -2.1% - -
Croatia 25,107 6153 -3.5% - ~15,000
Cuba 531 47 -6.8% - -
Cyprus 13,185 10843 5.4% 13.2 days ~27,000
Czech Republic 285,814 26640 1.5% 46 days ~350,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 6,815 74 0.5% 148.4 days ~7,300
Denmark 64,571 11109 3.7% 18.9 days ~110,000
Djibouti
Dominican Republic 1,533 140 -7.9% - ~500
Ecuador 52,088 2909 0.7% 103.3 days ~57,000
Egypt 40,733 391 0.2% - ~42,000
El Salvador 13,032 1999 0.0% - ~13,000
Equatorial Guinea 78 54 0.0% - -
Estonia 14,831 11173 -2.5% - ~10,000
Ethiopia 15,808 134 0.1% - ~16,000
Finland 148,796 26814 1.1% 66.1 days ~170,000
France 656,461 10035 6.2% 11.5 days ~1,500,000
French Guiana 34,678 113230 0.1% - ~35,000
Gabon 3,806 1671 -2.7% - ~2,600
Germany 996,000 11850 1.7% 42.1 days ~1,300,000
Ghana 692 22 0.0% - ~700
Greece 70,081 6756 -0.9% - ~62,000
Guadeloupe 52,286 130653 0.0% - ~52,000
Guatemala 1,090 60 -4.7% - ~600
Guinea 657 49 0.0% - ~700
Guinea-Bissau
Haiti 3,142 272 -0.4% - ~3,000
Honduras 245,733 24429 -0.1% - ~240,000
Hong Kong 106 14 2.7% 26.2 days -
Hungary 187,208 19428 0.4% 196.8 days ~200,000
Iceland 1,319 3841 -3.5% - ~800
India 103,258 74 -1.1% - ~88,000
Indonesia 5,466 20 -1.6% - ~4,400
Iran 74,004 870 -4.9% - ~37,000
Iraq 9,755 237 -3.5% - ~5,900
Ireland 131,599 26362 1.3% 54.8 days ~160,000
Israel 5,781 620 -0.1% - ~5,700
Italy 240,894 3990 2.8% 24.8 days ~360,000
Jamaica 25,920 8716 -0.2% - ~25,000
Japan 831 7 -1.5% - ~700
Jordan 64,437 6254 2.5% 28.2 days ~91,000
Kazakhstan 20,295 1068 -1.7% - ~16,000
Kenya 1,755 32 2.9% 24 days ~2,600
Kuwait 322 74 2.6% 27.3 days ~500
Kyrgyzstan 2,240 338 -1.0% - ~1,900
Laos 74,529 10100 1.7% 40.8 days ~95,000
Latvia 10,368 5557 -1.9% - ~8,000
Lebanon 34,703 5107 2.7% 25.7 days ~51,000
Libya 12,061 1732 -7.9% - ~3,800
Lithuania 27,542 10259 -0.5% - ~26,000
Luxembourg 5,228 8220 2.5% 27.7 days ~7,400
Macedonia 5,627 2701 -1.9% - ~4,300
Madagascar 709 25 0.0% - ~710
Malaysia 60,411 1843 -1.0% - ~52,000
Maldives 1,845 3355 1.0% 68.7 days ~2,100
Mali 2,148 103 3.1% 22.4 days ~3,300
Martinique 44,679 119151 0.0% - ~45,000
Mauritania 719 151 -2.8% - ~500
Mayotte 17,894 64076 0.1% - ~18,000
Mexico 346,619 2661 -0.1% - ~340,000
Moldova 6,488 1612 -3.1% - ~4,200
Morocco 2,597 70 -1.0% - ~2,300
Nepal 6,352 214 -1.0% - ~5,500
Netherlands 589,752 34343 2.3% 30.6 days ~810,000
New Zealand 6,416 1283 1.5% 45.6 days ~7,900
Nicaragua 12,893 1924 0.1% - ~13,000
Niger 83 3 -8.0% - -
Nigeria 4,421 21 1.5% 46.9 days ~5,400
Norway 204,706 37472 2.0% 34.2 days ~270,000
Oman 468 89 1.0% 66.8 days ~500
Pakistan 11,826 53 -0.2% - ~12,000
Panama 2,995 684 1.3% 53 days ~3,600
Paraguay 691 96 -2.3% - ~500
Philippines 13,026 117 -2.9% - ~8,700
Poland 433,159 11457 0.1% - ~440,000
Portugal 60,584 5959 1.5% 45.9 days ~75,000
Qatar 2,255 803 1.3% 54.6 days ~2,700
Romania 25,104 1314 -5.2% - ~12,000
Russia 1,016,110 6960 -0.2% - ~990,000
Saudi Arabia 2,009 57 0.0% - ~2,000
Senegal
Serbia 38,744 4452 -3.5% - ~24,000
Singapore 8,179 1387 -5.2% - ~3,900
Slovakia 118,017 21606 0.5% 137.3 days ~130,000
Slovenia 27,285 13123 -4.0% - ~15,000
Somalia 9,395 575 0.0% - ~9,400
South Africa 96,572 1608 17.6% 4.3 days ~930,000
South Korea 66,995 1306 4.8% 14.8 days ~130,000
Spain 221,127 4728 4.3% 16.3 days ~400,000
Sri Lanka 11,555 537 3.2% 21.9 days ~18,000
Sudan 5,184 116 0.6% 112.7 days ~5,700
Sweden 40,889 4024 4.3% 16.3 days ~74,000
Switzerland 183,473 21048 3.6% 19.7 days ~300,000
Thailand 66,397 949 -2.0% - ~50,000
Tunisia 1,366 114 2.6% 26.7 days ~2,000
Turkey 378,933 4446 -0.3% - ~360,000
Uganda 26,761 568 0.0% - ~27,000
Ukraine 339,005 7798 -2.5% - ~240,000
United Arab Emirates 2,808 281 -0.7% - ~2,500
United Kingdom 1,113,817 16323 1.0% 72.2 days ~1,300,000
United States 9,715,064 29182 0.3% 217.3 days ~10,000,000
Uzbekistan 2,002 59 0.0% - ~2,000
Venezuela 7,324 258 -0.5% - ~6,800
Viet Nam 299,167 3047 3.4% 20.6 days ~480,000
The World** 21,330,051 2709 0.6% 114.9 days ~23,000,000
Zambia 217 11 10.5% 6.9 days ~880
Zimbabwe 7,922 525 35.2% 2.3 days ~540,000
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.