COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Wednesday, October 21

Yesterday's
active cases

9,274,820

Recent
growth rate
*

1.3%

Doubling
time

55.2 days

2 week
forecast

~11,000,000

Optimistic
2 wk forecast

~3,700,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. The "Optimsistic" forecast might be achievable if we all continue our efforts to isolate. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Recent Growth Rate calculation has been revised for accuracy.
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If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast Optimistic forecast
Afghanistan 5,068 130 -0.2% - ~4,900 ***
Algeria 14,610 333 0.4% 181.7 days ~15,000 ~5,100
Andorra 1,288 16670 3.7% 19.3 days ~2,100 ~740
Argentina 162,252 3590 1.0% 70.2 days ~190,000 ~62,000
Armenia 16,859 5689 6.4% 11.2 days ~40,000 ~14,000
Australia 1,398 55 0.3% 209.5 days ~1,500 ~500
Austria 15,130 1680 3.5% 20 days ~25,000 ~8,500
Azerbaijan 4,972 490 10.7% 6.8 days ~21,000 ~7,700
Bahrain 3,139 1845 -2.9% - ~2,100 ***
Bangladesh 78,746 478 -0.1% - ~77,000 ***
Belarus 7,469 790 3.6% 19.5 days ~12,000 ~4,200
Belgium 198,823 17155 5.3% 13.5 days ~410,000 ~140,000
Bolivia 26,431 2264 -1.0% - ~23,000 ***
Bosnia and Herzegovina 8,812 2686 3.8% 18.5 days ~15,000 ~5,100
Brazil 398,336 1874 -2.1% - ~300,000 ***
Bulgaria 13,430 1933 6.6% 10.8 days ~33,000 ~12,000
Cameroon 1,028 39 1.9% 35.9 days ~1,300 ~500
Canada 22,151 587 1.7% 42 days ~28,000 ~9,400
Central African Republic 2,872 595 0.0% - ~2,900 ~950
Chile 14,133 739 -0.4% - ~13,000 ***
China 258 0 2.1% 34 days ~300 -
Colombia 68,136 1339 -3.6% - ~41,000 ***
Costa Rica 36,591 7183 1.2% 56.2 days ~43,000 ~15,000
Côte d'Ivoire 177 7 -2.9% - - ***
Croatia 5,519 1344 8.1% 8.8 days ~17,000 ~6,000
Cuba 372 33 2.6% 26.5 days ~500 -
Cyprus 1,370 1135 10.6% 6.9 days ~5,600 ~2,100
Czech Republic 113,219 10572 7.2% 10 days ~300,000 ~110,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 401 4 1.3% 53.9 days ~500 -
Denmark 5,687 982 1.0% 70.1 days ~6,500 ~2,200
Djibouti 54 55 24.9% 3.1 days ~1,200 ~500
Dominican Republic 20,498 1890 -1.0% - ~18,000 ***
Ecuador 7,524 426 8.3% 8.7 days ~23,000 ~8,300
Egypt 1,150 11 4.3% 16.5 days ~2,100 ~720
El Salvador 3,593 554 -0.9% - ~3,200 ***
Equatorial Guinea ***
Estonia 786 593 -0.7% - ~720 ***
Ethiopia 45,481 396 0.2% - ~47,000 ~16,000
Finland 4,398 794 5.4% 13.2 days ~9,200 ~3,200
France 790,021 12103 3.1% 22.7 days ~1,200,000 ~420,000
French Guiana 204 683 -2.1% - - ***
Gabon 378 170 -3.5% - ~200 ***
Germany 72,643 867 6.2% 11.5 days ~170,000 ~60,000
Ghana 397 13 2.3% 30.1 days ~500 -
Greece 15,952 1530 3.3% 21.5 days ~25,000 ~8,600
Guatemala 7,069 395 -0.9% - ~6,200 ***
Guinea 1,021 78 5.4% 13.2 days ~2,100 ~750
Guinea-Bissau 544 276 -0.6% - ~500 ***
Haiti 1,442 126 -0.4% - ~1,400 ***
Honduras 51,407 5190 0.7% 103.8 days ~56,000 ~19,000
Hong Kong 161 21 0.2% - - -
Hungary 32,909 3407 2.7% 26.1 days ~48,000 ~16,000
Iceland 1,252 3669 2.3% 30.7 days ~1,700 ~600
India 740,658 537 -1.6% - ~590,000 ***
Indonesia 62,455 228 -0.6% - ~57,000 ***
Iran 73,960 881 1.5% 46.3 days ~91,000 ~31,000
Iraq 58,098 1444 0.3% 199.6 days ~61,000 ~20,000
Ireland 27,027 5474 5.1% 14 days ~54,000 ~19,000
Israel 21,379 2470 -9.1% - ~5,600 ***
Italy 142,739 2361 6.8% 10.6 days ~360,000 ~130,000
Japan 5,291 42 -0.2% - ~5,100 ***
Kazakhstan 2,710 144 -1.2% - ~2,300 ***
Kenya 12,283 228 3.4% 20.6 days ~20,000 ~6,800
Kuwait 7,806 1828 1.0% 67.5 days ~9,000 ~3,000
Kyrgyzstan 5,658 867 4.4% 16 days ~10,000 ~3,600
Latvia 2,221 1178 6.2% 11.6 days ~5,100 ~1,800
Lebanon 34,307 5026 1.8% 39 days ~44,000 ~15,000
Lithuania 4,534 1666 3.9% 18 days ~7,800 ~2,700
Luxembourg 2,634 4208 8.1% 8.9 days ~7,900 ~2,800
Macedonia 5,673 2723 4.1% 17.1 days ~10,000 ~3,500
Madagascar 357 13 -1.5% - ~300 ***
Malaysia 7,681 237 5.9% 12.1 days ~17,000 ~6,000
Maldives 1,000 1850 -0.8% - ~890 ***
Mali 686 34 0.4% 159.5 days ~730 ~200
Mauritania 112 24 1.4% 49.2 days - -
Mayotte 1,152 4223 0.6% 116.6 days ~1,300 ~400
Mexico 145,094 1125 0.4% 165.2 days ~150,000 ~51,000
Moldova 17,258 4278 0.6% 125 days ~19,000 ~6,200
Morocco 27,138 735 2.5% 27.6 days ~39,000 ~13,000
Nepal 41,755 1433 3.0% 23.6 days ~63,000 ~22,000
New Zealand ***
Nicaragua 1,054 159 1.2% 59.4 days ~1,200 ~400
Niger ***
Nigeria 3,708 18 0.7% 102 days ~4,100 ~1,400
Norway 4,631 854 3.6% 19.7 days ~7,600 ~2,600
Oman 12,962 2538 0.9% 76.4 days ~15,000 ~4,900
Pakistan 9,384 42 0.7% 105.2 days ~10,000 ~3,400
Panama 21,126 4896 -0.2% - ~21,000 ***
Paraguay 17,675 2478 0.7% 94.5 days ~20,000 ~6,500
Peru 51,749 1569 -3.7% - ~31,000 ***
Philippines 43,443 396 4.1% 17.4 days ~76,000 ~26,000
Poland 92,862 2454 8.9% 8.1 days ~310,000 ~110,000
Portugal 39,625 3886 2.7% 25.9 days ~58,000 ~20,000
Qatar 2,854 991 0.2% - ~2,900 ~970
Romania 45,863 2384 4.1% 17.3 days ~80,000 ~28,000
Russia 321,392 2202 2.5% 28 days ~450,000 ~160,000
Saudi Arabia 8,481 244 -0.4% - ~8,000 ***
Senegal 1,217 73 -3.1% - ~780 ***
Serbia 4,292 491 6.4% 11.2 days ~10,000 ~3,600
Singapore 74 13 -8.2% - - ***
Slovakia 23,298 4267 5.7% 12.4 days ~51,000 ~18,000
Slovenia 7,709 3708 10.2% 7.1 days ~30,000 ~11,000
Somalia 623 39 0.0% - ~600 ~200
South Africa 48,080 811 -0.1% - ~47,000 ***
South Korea 1,420 28 -0.2% - ~1,400 ***
Sri Lanka 2,341 109 5.2% 13.7 days ~4,800 ~1,700
Sudan 6,124 140 0.0% - ~6,200 ~2,000
Switzerland 29,422 3400 13.0% 5.7 days ~160,000 ~61,000
Thailand 150 2 1.7% 40 days - -
Tunisia 38,707 3275 2.7% 26.1 days ~56,000 ~19,000
Turkey 35,029 415 0.8% 83.7 days ~39,000 ~13,000
Uganda 3,625 79 0.3% 277.4 days ~3,800 ~1,200
Ukraine 173,788 3974 2.3% 30.6 days ~240,000 ~81,000
United Arab Emirates 6,811 689 -2.5% - ~4,800 ***
United States 2,748,539 8304 0.5% 151.6 days ~2,900,000 ~980,000
Uzbekistan 2,387 71 -0.5% - ~2,200 ***
Venezuela 6,581 231 -2.3% - ~4,800 ***
The World** 9,274,820 1193 1.3% 55.2 days ~11,000,000 ~3,700,000
Zambia 598 33 2.0% 35.2 days ~790 ~300
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.