COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Sunday, September 26

Yesterday's
active cases

18,633,861

Recent
growth rate
*

0.0%

Doubling
time

-

2 week
forecast

~19,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 24,295 611 -0.4% - ~23,000
Algeria 58,070 1301 0.0% - ~58,000
Andorra 71 917 4.7% 15.2 days -
Angola 6,114 181 3.3% 21.1 days ~9,700
Argentina 25,138 551 -3.2% - ~16,000
Armenia 13,268 4469 1.3% 52.1 days ~16,000
Australia 19,806 768 1.7% 41.2 days ~25,000
Austria 20,998 2318 -1.0% - ~18,000
Azerbaijan 24,334 2379 -4.7% - ~12,000
Bahrain 730 415 -2.1% - ~500
Bangladesh 12,811 77 -2.5% - ~9,100
Belarus 12,482 1321 5.2% 13.7 days ~25,000
Belgium 63,499 5456 0.4% 171.9 days ~67,000
Bolivia 23,663 2000 -2.0% - ~18,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 28,161 8637 2.5% 28.6 days ~40,000
Brazil 415,150 1940 3.6% 19.5 days ~680,000
Bulgaria 42,409 6149 0.8% 83.1 days ~48,000
Cambodia 5,857 346 3.5% 20.2 days ~9,500
Cameroon 3,613 133 0.0% - ~3,600
Canada 45,688 1200 0.6% 109.9 days ~50,000
Central African Republic 4,412 898 0.1% - ~4,500
Chile 7,063 366 2.2% 32.3 days ~9,500
China 1,020 1 1.6% 43.6 days ~1,300
Colombia 34,023 662 -0.3% - ~32,000
Costa Rica 94,789 18442 0.3% 203.1 days ~99,000
Côte d'Ivoire 1,903 70 2.1% 33.9 days ~2,500
Croatia 8,577 2102 1.4% 49.4 days ~10,000
Cuba 35,377 3125 -0.9% - ~31,000
Cyprus 26,660 21924 0.5% 137.3 days ~29,000
Czech Republic 6,047 564 3.7% 19.3 days ~10,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 24,676 268 0.1% - ~25,000
Denmark 4,648 800 -3.5% - ~2,800
Djibouti 253 252 7.4% 9.7 days ~700
Dominican Republic 4,842 442 -0.5% - ~4,500
Ecuador 31,258 1746 0.4% 186.1 days ~33,000
Egypt 29,736 285 0.0% - ~30,000
El Salvador 13,869 2128 0.3% 257.7 days ~14,000
Equatorial Guinea 1,439 994 0.0% - ~1,400
Estonia 9,453 7121 1.2% 57.3 days ~11,000
Ethiopia 27,620 235 0.1% - ~28,000
Finland 91,516 16492 0.4% 182.3 days ~97,000
France 153,132 2341 -4.2% - ~84,000
French Guiana 29,539 96450 0.6% 112.8 days ~32,000
Gabon 2,407 1057 8.2% 8.8 days ~7,200
Germany 155,024 1844 -1.1% - ~130,000
Ghana 3,597 113 -2.8% - ~2,400
Greece 27,417 2643 1.1% 64.1 days ~32,000
Guatemala 32,907 1804 -2.1% - ~25,000
Guinea 1,268 94 -1.5% - ~1,000
Guinea-Bissau 681 338 -0.7% - ~600
Haiti 1,582 137 -0.1% - ~1,600
Honduras 244,399 24296 0.3% 236.4 days ~250,000
Hong Kong 82 11 1.0% 72.7 days -
Hungary 8,133 844 1.2% 58.9 days ~9,600
Iceland 348 1013 0.7% 97.5 days ~400
India 309,511 222 -1.1% - ~270,000
Indonesia 44,071 159 -5.4% - ~20,000
Iran 479,668 5640 -2.1% - ~360,000
Iraq 77,143 1877 -2.6% - ~53,000
Ireland 42,185 8451 -1.0% - ~37,000
Israel 62,993 6755 -3.3% - ~40,000
Italy 102,574 1699 -1.5% - ~84,000
Japan 44,723 355 -8.3% - ~13,000
Jordan 12,295 1193 -0.1% - ~12,000
Kazakhstan 55,621 2928 -2.0% - ~42,000
Kenya 3,566 65 -3.0% - ~2,300
Kuwait 664 153 -3.8% - ~400
Kyrgyzstan 2,839 428 -0.6% - ~2,600
Latvia 8,243 4418 4.6% 15.4 days ~15,000
Lebanon 24,881 3662 -2.5% - ~17,000
Lithuania 20,548 7654 2.0% 35.4 days ~27,000
Luxembourg 1,162 1827 0.6% 119.1 days ~1,300
Macedonia 12,240 5875 -0.7% - ~11,000
Madagascar 618 22 0.0% - ~600
Malaysia 191,434 5841 -1.7% - ~150,000
Maldives 1,627 2959 -1.3% - ~1,400
Mali 346 17 2.2% 31.5 days ~500
Mauritania 841 176 -2.8% - ~600
Mayotte 17,077 61150 0.1% - ~17,000
Mexico 373,412 2867 -0.2% - ~360,000
Moldova 9,021 2241 2.5% 28.5 days ~13,000
Morocco 17,187 460 -4.1% - ~9,500
Nepal 19,700 664 -2.4% - ~14,000
Netherlands 65,881 3836 -1.1% - ~57,000
New Zealand 250 50 -8.4% - -
Nicaragua 9,302 1388 0.0% - ~9,300
Niger 50 -2.3% - -
Nigeria 9,107 43 0.4% 194.9 days ~9,600
Norway 96,752 17711 0.7% 95.9 days ~110,000
Oman 4,290 820 -2.5% - ~3,000
Pakistan 52,042 231 -3.1% - ~34,000
Panama 3,673 838 -1.1% - ~3,100
Paraguay 1,030 143 -8.4% - ~300
Philippines 165,110 1487 -1.0% - ~140,000
Poland 166,244 4397 0.3% 220.7 days ~170,000
Portugal 31,481 3096 -1.1% - ~27,000
Qatar 1,493 532 -1.8% - ~1,200
Romania 55,407 2899 8.7% 8.3 days ~180,000
Russia 604,387 4140 0.7% 99.6 days ~670,000
Saudi Arabia 2,296 65 -0.5% - ~2,100
Senegal 486 28 -19.0% - -
Serbia 121,809 13997 3.2% 22 days ~190,000
Singapore 11,742 1992 9.2% 7.9 days ~40,000
Slovakia 9,519 1743 7.6% 9.5 days ~26,000
Slovenia 13,606 6544 1.4% 50.2 days ~17,000
Somalia 9,206 564 0.5% 128.8 days ~9,900
South Africa 50,701 844 -4.3% - ~27,000
South Korea 29,547 576 1.5% 47.1 days ~36,000
Spain 152,205 3254 -3.3% - ~95,000
Sri Lanka 46,233 2150 0.6% 107.4 days ~51,000
Sudan 3,269 73 0.2% - ~3,300
Sweden 27,270 2684 -1.3% - ~23,000
Switzerland 68,138 7817 -1.3% - ~56,000
Thailand 124,540 1780 -0.3% - ~120,000
Tunisia 7,422 622 4.4% 16.2 days ~13,000
Turkey 478,301 5612 0.9% 76.1 days ~540,000
Uganda 23,928 507 0.5% 149.5 days ~26,000
Ukraine 88,984 2047 6.8% 10.6 days ~220,000
United Arab Emirates 5,701 570 -1.4% - ~4,700
United Kingdom 1,335,993 19579 0.4% 188.1 days ~1,400,000
United States 9,857,502 29610 0.3% 243.6 days ~10,000,000
Uzbekistan 4,357 128 -3.4% - ~2,700
Venezuela 12,168 429 0.4% 171.3 days ~13,000
Viet Nam 211,829 2157 -0.1% - ~210,000
The World** 18,633,861 2366 0.0% - ~19,000,000
Zambia 514 27 -6.8% - -
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.