COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Saturday, October 16

Yesterday's
active cases

17,838,344

Recent
growth rate
*

-0.1%

Doubling
time

-

2 week
forecast

~18,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 21,644 544 -0.5% - ~20,000
Algeria 58,620 1314 0.0% - ~59,000
Andorra 69 892 -3.5% - -
Angola 10,362 306 0.4% 194 days ~11,000
Argentina 18,083 397 -1.7% - ~14,000
Armenia 20,507 6908 3.0% 23.2 days ~31,000
Australia 27,122 1052 2.8% 24.9 days ~40,000
Austria 20,968 2315 0.4% 160.1 days ~22,000
Azerbaijan 14,932 1460 1.1% 65.4 days ~17,000
Bahrain 618 351 0.5% 151.1 days ~700
Bangladesh 10,244 62 -1.2% - ~8,700
Belarus 22,414 2373 1.9% 37.6 days ~29,000
Belgium 65,834 5656 1.7% 42.2 days ~83,000
Bolivia 19,767 1671 -0.6% - ~18,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 40,586 12447 1.6% 44 days ~51,000
Brazil 250,923 1172 -1.8% - ~200,000
Bulgaria 58,764 8520 2.1% 33.2 days ~79,000
Cambodia 3,376 199 -5.8% - ~1,500
Cameroon 16,419 604 0.0% - ~16,000
Canada 34,782 914 -0.8% - ~31,000
Central African Republic 4,510 918 0.0% - ~4,500
Chile 9,713 504 3.3% 21.3 days ~15,000
China 556 0 -3.7% - ~300
Colombia 29,848 581 -0.2% - ~29,000
Costa Rica 74,291 14454 -0.6% - ~68,000
Côte d'Ivoire 998 37 -3.7% - ~600
Croatia 9,811 2404 1.7% 40.3 days ~12,000
Cuba 10,334 913 -7.1% - ~3,700
Cyprus 29,100 23931 0.5% 131.9 days ~31,000
Czech Republic 14,683 1369 7.4% 9.8 days ~40,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 5,250 57 0.1% - ~5,300
Denmark 8,053 1386 3.7% 19.1 days ~13,000
Djibouti 190 190 -4.3% - -
Dominican Republic 7,285 665 0.2% - ~7,500
Ecuador 36,247 2024 0.3% 233.3 days ~38,000
Egypt 31,472 302 0.4% 191.4 days ~33,000
El Salvador 14,568 2235 -0.1% - ~14,000
Equatorial Guinea 421 291 -6.7% - -
Estonia 15,989 12045 2.5% 27.6 days ~23,000
Ethiopia 24,055 204 -1.0% - ~21,000
Finland 102,781 18522 0.5% 136.8 days ~110,000
France 90,728 1387 -1.3% - ~76,000
French Guiana 33,086 108032 0.4% 171.3 days ~35,000
Gabon 5,350 2349 2.2% 31.7 days ~7,300
Germany 148,383 1765 0.4% 164.9 days ~160,000
Ghana 2,696 85 0.0% - ~2,700
Greece 28,560 2753 0.2% - ~29,000
Guatemala 14,416 790 -4.8% - ~7,200
Guinea 954 71 -1.2% - ~810
Guinea-Bissau 600 298 -0.4% - ~600
Haiti 2,189 190 1.2% 57 days ~2,600
Honduras 248,418 24695 0.0% - ~250,000
Hong Kong 93 12 -0.3% - -
Hungary 12,118 1258 4.0% 17.8 days ~21,000
Iceland 499 1453 2.7% 25.6 days ~730
India 208,324 150 -1.7% - ~160,000
Indonesia 19,318 70 -4.0% - ~11,000
Iran 347,228 4083 -1.2% - ~300,000
Iraq 48,281 1175 -2.7% - ~33,000
Ireland 41,666 8347 0.8% 91.8 days ~46,000
Israel 20,125 2158 -5.2% - ~9,500
Italy 78,522 1301 -1.2% - ~66,000
Japan 9,003 71 -7.0% - ~3,300
Jordan 14,847 1441 1.2% 56 days ~18,000
Kazakhstan 46,151 2429 -0.6% - ~42,000
Kenya 1,516 28 -3.3% - ~950
Kuwait 577 133 -1.2% - ~500
Kyrgyzstan 2,551 385 -0.1% - ~2,500
Latvia 21,997 11791 5.7% 12.4 days ~48,000
Lebanon 17,249 2538 -1.2% - ~14,000
Lithuania 32,997 12291 2.7% 25.8 days ~48,000
Luxembourg 1,434 2255 1.1% 65.3 days ~1,700
Macedonia 6,693 3213 -1.0% - ~5,800
Madagascar 618 22 0.0% - ~600
Malaysia 97,505 2975 -3.3% - ~61,000
Maldives 1,230 2237 -0.2% - ~1,200
Mali 585 28 2.9% 24 days ~880
Mauritania 417 87 -0.9% - ~400
Mayotte 17,294 61928 0.0% - ~17,000
Mexico 357,862 2747 0.0% - ~360,000
Moldova 12,448 3093 2.7% 26.2 days ~18,000
Morocco 5,865 157 -4.5% - ~3,100
Nepal 13,308 449 -2.0% - ~10,000
Netherlands 63,315 3687 1.1% 62 days ~74,000
New Zealand 683 137 8.3% 8.7 days ~2,100
Nicaragua 11,306 1687 0.0% - ~11,000
Niger 91 4 2.6% 27.2 days -
Nigeria 9,603 45 0.2% - ~9,800
Norway 105,972 19398 0.4% 173.8 days ~110,000
Oman 560 107 -1.0% - ~500
Pakistan 39,953 177 -1.3% - ~33,000
Panama 2,430 555 -1.6% - ~1,900
Paraguay 160 22 -8.1% - -
Philippines 78,999 712 -3.4% - ~49,000
Poland 185,111 4896 0.7% 96 days ~200,000
Portugal 30,212 2971 0.1% - ~31,000
Qatar 915 326 -1.5% - ~740
Romania 168,392 8811 4.1% 17.4 days ~290,000
Russia 743,839 5095 1.1% 63.5 days ~870,000
Saudi Arabia 2,228 63 0.1% - ~2,200
Senegal
Serbia 126,591 14546 0.0% - ~130,000
Singapore 26,775 4542 1.1% 62.6 days ~31,000
Slovakia 19,961 3654 3.6% 19.5 days ~33,000
Slovenia 11,719 5636 -0.3% - ~11,000
Somalia 10,162 622 0.0% - ~10,000
South Africa 22,933 382 -3.4% - ~14,000
South Korea 30,884 602 -1.0% - ~27,000
Spain 71,618 1531 -2.0% - ~54,000
Sri Lanka 25,014 1163 1.2% 59.8 days ~29,000
Sudan 3,501 78 0.0% - ~3,500
Sweden 17,993 1771 -3.2% - ~11,000
Switzerland 35,827 4110 -3.4% - ~22,000
Thailand 107,606 1538 0.1% - ~110,000
Tunisia 1,673 140 -8.2% - ~500
Turkey 494,649 5804 0.4% 164.2 days ~520,000
Uganda 25,517 541 0.3% 248.3 days ~27,000
Ukraine 234,180 5387 4.9% 14.4 days ~460,000
United Arab Emirates 4,270 427 -1.3% - ~3,500
United Kingdom 1,384,143 20284 0.4% 179.3 days ~1,500,000
United States 9,690,608 29109 0.0% - ~9,600,000
Uzbekistan 2,883 85 -1.7% - ~2,300
Venezuela 15,266 538 0.4% 174 days ~16,000
Viet Nam 47,673 485 5.4% 13.2 days ~99,000
The World** 17,838,344 2265 -0.1% - ~18,000,000
Zambia 222 12 -5.4% - -
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.