COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Saturday, June 12

Yesterday's
active cases

12,298,007

Recent
growth rate
*

-0.9%

Doubling
time

-

2 week
forecast

~11,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 24,830 638 6.5% 11.1 days ~60,000
Algeria 36,783 839 0.3% 247.7 days ~38,000
Andorra 95 1230 -1.2% - -
Argentina 339,790 7518 -0.6% - ~310,000
Armenia 4,075 1375 -1.9% - ~3,100
Australia 162 6 2.6% 26.7 days ~200
Austria 4,430 492 -1.5% - ~3,600
Azerbaijan 1,920 189 -7.5% - ~600
Bahrain 15,196 8931 -6.3% - ~6,100
Bangladesh 47,901 291 0.1% - ~48,000
Belarus 4,237 448 -3.6% - ~2,500
Belgium 56,321 4860 -1.6% - ~45,000
Bolivia 69,422 5947 1.2% 58 days ~82,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 17,996 5485 -0.6% - ~17,000
Brazil 1,098,277 5167 0.2% - ~1,100,000
Bulgaria 12,952 1864 -2.7% - ~8,800
Cameroon 1,475 56 0.0% - ~1,500
Canada 18,411 488 -5.0% - ~9,000
Central African Republic 144 30 0.0% - -
Chile 48,823 2554 1.5% 45.7 days ~60,000
China 426 0 2.2% 32.3 days ~600
Colombia 164,983 3242 1.6% 44.6 days ~210,000
Costa Rica 74,383 14602 0.4% 171.2 days ~79,000
Côte d'Ivoire 197 7 -2.6% - -
Croatia 1,207 294 -5.6% - ~500
Cuba 6,248 552 0.6% 109.7 days ~6,800
Cyprus 1,577 1306 -3.3% - ~980
Czech Republic 6,204 579 -3.6% - ~3,700
Democratic Republic of the Congo 6,041 67 6.3% 11.4 days ~14,000
Denmark 10,082 1741 -2.5% - ~7,100
Djibouti
Dominican Republic 53,361 4919 0.9% 77.4 days ~60,000
Ecuador 17,479 991 3.5% 20.2 days ~28,000
Egypt 56,393 551 0.1% - ~57,000
El Salvador 2,913 449 0.5% 151.3 days ~3,100
Equatorial Guinea 219 156 0.0% - ~200
Estonia 3,624 2732 -3.2% - ~2,300
Ethiopia 20,186 176 -2.5% - ~14,000
Finland 46,696 8428 0.2% - ~48,000
France 139,805 2142 -4.3% - ~76,000
French Guiana 15,378 51486 0.9% 77.8 days ~17,000
Gabon 839 377 -8.5% - ~200
Germany 61,413 733 -5.3% - ~29,000
Ghana 1,103 35 0.0% - ~1,100
Greece 12,642 1213 -3.7% - ~7,500
Guatemala 16,476 920 2.7% 25.6 days ~24,000
Guinea 1,761 134 -0.3% - ~1,700
Guinea-Bissau 188 96 -0.2% - -
Haiti 3,297 289 4.3% 16.4 days ~6,000
Honduras 150,426 15187 0.2% - ~160,000
Hong Kong 72 10 0.5% 143.2 days -
Hungary 52,272 5411 -3.2% - ~33,000
Iceland
India 1,089,248 789 -4.8% - ~550,000
Indonesia 106,315 389 1.3% 54.3 days ~130,000
Iran 306,480 3649 -1.8% - ~240,000
Iraq 66,089 1643 -0.4% - ~63,000
Ireland 12,060 2442 -0.3% - ~12,000
Israel 218 25 0.3% 260.2 days ~200
Italy 165,239 2733 -2.6% - ~110,000
Japan 34,753 275 -4.1% - ~19,000
Kazakhstan 20,890 1113 -2.1% - ~15,000
Kenya 51,806 963 0.3% 248.4 days ~54,000
Kuwait 15,689 3674 1.5% 46.5 days ~19,000
Kyrgyzstan 5,299 812 1.8% 37.9 days ~6,800
Latvia 3,060 1622 -3.9% - ~1,800
Lebanon 7,987 1170 -4.9% - ~3,900
Lithuania 10,909 4007 -2.5% - ~7,600
Luxembourg 645 1030 -2.8% - ~400
Macedonia 425 204 -6.6% - -
Madagascar 800 29 15.6% 4.8 days ~6,100
Malaysia 78,864 2437 -0.4% - ~74,000
Maldives 13,080 24198 -6.6% - ~5,100
Mali 3,910 193 -0.2% - ~3,800
Mauritania 489 105 -2.2% - ~400
Mayotte 17,039 62456 0.0% - ~17,000
Mexico 267,692 2076 0.3% 242 days ~280,000
Moldova 1,065 264 -3.7% - ~600
Morocco 3,340 90 1.2% 59.2 days ~3,900
Nepal 75,275 2584 -3.5% - ~45,000
New Zealand
Nicaragua 3,249 490 0.0% - ~3,200
Niger 93 4 -1.7% - -
Nigeria 1,504 7 -4.4% - ~810
Norway 38,133 7034 0.6% 119.8 days ~41,000
Oman 19,957 3908 2.6% 27.2 days ~29,000
Pakistan 43,618 197 -2.5% - ~31,000
Panama 8,827 2046 3.3% 21.6 days ~14,000
Paraguay 57,554 8069 0.5% 127.2 days ~62,000
Peru
Philippines 61,345 560 1.8% 38.6 days ~79,000
Poland 154,804 4090 -0.2% - ~150,000
Portugal 24,589 2411 0.9% 80.5 days ~28,000
Qatar 2,409 836 -3.5% - ~1,500
Romania 4,046 210 -5.5% - ~1,800
Russia 272,597 1868 0.3% 228.2 days ~280,000
Saudi Arabia 10,112 290 0.0% - ~10,000
Senegal 301 18 4.9% 14.6 days ~600
Serbia 4,689 537 -6.2% - ~1,900
Singapore 412 70 -3.1% - ~300
Slovakia 1,453 266 -2.4% - ~1,000
Slovenia 3,083 1483 -2.8% - ~2,100
Somalia 6,989 440 -0.1% - ~6,900
South Africa 74,221 1251 3.9% 18 days ~130,000
South Korea 7,654 149 0.2% - ~7,900
Sri Lanka 32,265 1507 2.9% 24.3 days ~48,000
Sudan 3,643 83 0.0% - ~3,700
Switzerland 22,808 2635 -3.8% - ~13,000
Thailand 43,428 622 -0.9% - ~38,000
Tunisia 31,979 2706 0.7% 93.2 days ~35,000
Turkey 77,821 923 -0.9% - ~68,000
Uganda 10,347 226 20.3% 3.7 days ~140,000
Ukraine 49,070 1122 -7.3% - ~17,000
United Arab Emirates 18,980 1919 0.2% - ~19,000
United States 5,345,384 16149 -0.4% - ~5,000,000
Uzbekistan 3,265 98 -0.4% - ~3,100
Venezuela 17,367 611 0.7% 95.9 days ~19,000
The World** 12,298,007 1582 -0.9% - ~11,000,000
Zambia 10,952 596 15.4% 4.8 days ~82,000
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.