COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Tuesday, January 19

Yesterday's
active cases

25,334,953

Recent
growth rate
*

0.8%

Doubling
time

88.9 days

2 week
forecast

~28,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
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If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 5,436 140 -3.4% - ~3,300
Algeria 30,505 696 0.1% - ~31,000
Andorra 838 10846 1.7% 40.7 days ~1,100
Argentina 166,828 3691 0.0% - ~170,000
Armenia 8,614 2907 -1.8% - ~6,700
Australia 1,892 74 0.2% 283.5 days ~2,000
Austria 16,952 1882 -2.5% - ~12,000
Azerbaijan 8,598 848 -5.5% - ~3,900
Bahrain 2,934 1724 0.5% 134.8 days ~3,200
Bangladesh 47,234 287 -0.1% - ~46,000
Belarus 14,990 1586 -1.0% - ~13,000
Belgium 611,445 52758 0.3% 219.1 days ~640,000
Bolivia 34,110 2922 3.3% 21.3 days ~54,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 27,092 8258 -0.9% - ~24,000
Brazil 849,863 3998 1.4% 49.6 days ~1,000,000
Bulgaria 39,563 5694 -4.7% - ~20,000
Cameroon 694 26 0.0% - ~700
Canada 73,919 1959 -1.6% - ~59,000
Central African Republic
Chile 25,385 1328 2.3% 31 days ~35,000
China 1,301 1 10.8% 6.7 days ~5,500
Colombia 119,906 2357 0.9% 78 days ~140,000
Costa Rica 41,313 8110 0.7% 95.1 days ~46,000
Côte d'Ivoire 1,635 62 6.8% 10.5 days ~4,100
Croatia 3,276 798 -5.9% - ~1,400
Cuba 4,473 395 7.9% 9.1 days ~13,000
Cyprus 26,898 22278 0.9% 78.7 days ~30,000
Czech Republic 144,957 13536 -0.3% - ~140,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 5,616 63 4.1% 17.1 days ~9,900
Denmark 18,078 3121 -4.6% - ~9,300
Djibouti
Dominican Republic 48,310 4453 1.8% 39.3 days ~62,000
Ecuador 17,990 1020 3.1% 22.9 days ~27,000
Egypt 25,146 246 1.3% 55.8 days ~30,000
El Salvador 4,716 727 1.7% 41 days ~6,000
Equatorial Guinea 88 63 4.6% 15.6 days -
Estonia 10,342 7796 0.7% 106.5 days ~11,000
Ethiopia 13,178 115 0.6% 111.1 days ~14,000
Finland 8,887 1604 3.0% 23.6 days ~13,000
France 2,633,839 40351 0.6% 110.5 days ~2,900,000
French Guiana 4,984 16687 2.0% 34.2 days ~6,600
Gabon 221 99 5.3% 13.5 days ~500
Germany 319,509 3813 -1.3% - ~270,000
Ghana 1,924 62 6.5% 11 days ~4,700
Greece 133,448 12803 0.4% 190.4 days ~140,000
Guatemala 9,044 505 2.0% 35.7 days ~12,000
Guinea 733 56 1.7% 41.6 days ~930
Guinea-Bissau 59 30 11.3% 6.5 days ~300
Haiti 1,711 150 3.3% 21.4 days ~2,700
Honduras 70,625 7131 1.1% 62.8 days ~82,000
Hong Kong 716 96 -0.5% - ~700
Hungary 110,853 11475 -2.3% - ~79,000
Iceland 143 419 0.1% - -
India 202,202 147 -1.0% - ~180,000
Indonesia 144,798 529 2.1% 32.9 days ~190,000
Iran 153,832 1831 -0.2% - ~150,000
Iraq 24,878 619 -3.5% - ~15,000
Ireland 148,863 30148 2.7% 26.1 days ~220,000
Israel 80,633 9316 1.6% 44.1 days ~100,000
Italy 547,058 9048 -0.7% - ~500,000
Japan 71,006 561 3.3% 21.6 days ~110,000
Kazakhstan 13,247 706 2.3% 30 days ~18,000
Kenya 15,066 280 -0.7% - ~14,000
Kuwait 5,800 1358 3.9% 18 days ~9,900
Kyrgyzstan 2,687 412 -1.3% - ~2,300
Latvia 12,499 6627 0.4% 197.6 days ~13,000
Lebanon 99,389 14562 3.4% 20.6 days ~160,000
Lithuania 61,226 22491 -0.3% - ~59,000
Luxembourg 2,336 3732 -1.3% - ~1,900
Macedonia 12,500 6000 -1.9% - ~9,500
Madagascar 419 15 5.5% 12.9 days ~890
Malaysia 38,791 1199 4.6% 15.5 days ~72,000
Maldives 967 1789 3.4% 21 days ~1,500
Mali 1,955 97 -0.4% - ~1,900
Mauritania 1,073 231 -5.2% - ~500
Mayotte 3,767 13808 0.8% 85.8 days ~4,200
Mexico 277,616 2153 1.8% 38.2 days ~360,000
Moldova 6,515 1615 -1.9% - ~5,000
Morocco 16,481 447 -2.3% - ~12,000
Nepal 3,861 133 -2.0% - ~2,900
New Zealand 85 18 5.0% 14.1 days -
Nicaragua 1,760 266 0.0% - ~1,800
Niger 923 38 -4.7% - ~500
Nigeria 20,616 100 2.7% 26.2 days ~30,000
Norway 11,902 2195 4.7% 15 days ~23,000
Oman 6,284 1231 0.3% 219.8 days ~6,600
Pakistan 34,986 158 0.6% 115.2 days ~38,000
Panama 53,405 12377 -0.2% - ~52,000
Paraguay 21,605 3029 -0.2% - ~21,000
Peru 45,145 1369 5.7% 12.5 days ~98,000
Philippines 26,839 245 3.0% 23.3 days ~41,000
Poland 217,788 5754 -0.7% - ~200,000
Portugal 135,886 13326 3.2% 21.9 days ~210,000
Qatar 3,241 1125 1.6% 43.1 days ~4,100
Romania 52,433 2726 -0.7% - ~47,000
Russia 546,265 3743 -0.4% - ~520,000
Saudi Arabia 1,922 55 -0.5% - ~1,800
Senegal 3,284 196 3.6% 19.6 days ~5,400
Serbia 338,804 38776 0.5% 128.7 days ~370,000
Singapore 230 39 1.2% 59.3 days ~300
Slovakia 49,767 9115 -1.6% - ~40,000
Slovenia 23,473 11291 -0.8% - ~21,000
Somalia 948 60 0.0% - ~950
South Africa 192,035 3238 -0.5% - ~180,000
South Korea 12,742 249 -2.9% - ~8,400
Sri Lanka 7,318 342 1.1% 62.4 days ~8,500
Sudan 8,988 205 0.1% - ~9,100
Switzerland 173,539 20052 1.3% 53.5 days ~210,000
Thailand 3,147 45 -3.7% - ~1,900
Tunisia 45,116 3817 2.4% 29.5 days ~63,000
Turkey 98,033 1162 -0.7% - ~89,000
Uganda 24,698 540 0.1% - ~25,000
Ukraine 271,651 6211 -1.1% - ~230,000
United Arab Emirates 27,617 2792 1.7% 40.6 days ~35,000
United States 9,666,071 29202 0.9% 77 days ~11,000,000
Uzbekistan 879 26 -1.1% - ~760
Venezuela 6,004 211 2.6% 27.5 days ~8,500
The World** 25,334,953 3259 0.8% 88.9 days ~28,000,000
Zambia 10,321 561 7.4% 9.7 days ~28,000
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.