COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Saturday, July 24

Yesterday's
active cases

13,736,054

Recent
growth rate
*

1.3%

Doubling
time

53.7 days

2 week
forecast

~16,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 46,103 1159 -0.3% - ~44,000
Algeria 46,188 1035 1.1% 62.1 days ~54,000
Andorra 383 4949 5.1% 13.9 days ~770
Angola 5,364 158 1.2% 59.5 days ~6,300
Argentina 259,627 5693 -0.6% - ~240,000
Armenia 5,007 1687 1.7% 41.4 days ~6,300
Australia 1,923 75 9.6% 7.6 days ~6,900
Austria 4,429 489 6.4% 11.2 days ~11,000
Azerbaijan 2,861 280 6.2% 11.5 days ~6,600
Bahrain 834 474 -2.0% - ~600
Bangladesh 149,097 897 0.5% 133.3 days ~160,000
Belarus 2,736 290 -2.9% - ~1,800
Belgium 32,122 2760 4.6% 15.5 days ~60,000
Bolivia 51,828 4381 -0.8% - ~46,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 7,285 2234 -2.1% - ~5,400
Brazil 752,561 3516 -1.2% - ~640,000
Bulgaria 7,250 1051 -0.4% - ~6,900
Cambodia 6,548 386 -1.1% - ~5,600
Cameroon 236 9 3.0% 23.4 days ~400
Canada 4,551 120 -0.6% - ~4,200
Central African Republic 190 39 0.0% - -
Chile 11,592 601 -2.5% - ~8,100
China 663 0 3.2% 22.2 days ~1,000
Colombia 124,967 2431 -0.8% - ~110,000
Costa Rica 71,244 13861 0.3% 247 days ~74,000
Côte d'Ivoire 425 16 3.9% 18.1 days ~730
Croatia 957 235 6.4% 11.2 days ~2,300
Cuba 37,491 3312 0.4% 187.7 days ~39,000
Cyprus 19,340 15905 4.3% 16.5 days ~35,000
Czech Republic 3,187 297 4.2% 17 days ~5,600
Democratic Republic of the Congo 16,994 184 1.5% 45.2 days ~21,000
Denmark 11,868 2042 3.5% 20.1 days ~19,000
Djibouti
Dominican Republic 42,674 3895 -2.0% - ~32,000
Ecuador 6,043 337 4.0% 17.6 days ~10,000
Egypt 40,402 388 -1.7% - ~32,000
El Salvador 5,998 920 0.4% 161.4 days ~6,400
Equatorial Guinea 103 71 0.0% - -
Estonia 2,677 2017 1.6% 45 days ~3,300
Ethiopia 11,118 94 0.4% 184 days ~12,000
Finland 55,064 9923 0.7% 102.2 days ~61,000
France 169,391 2589 11.9% 6.2 days ~820,000
French Guiana 19,364 63227 0.5% 141.1 days ~21,000
Gabon 81 36 -3.4% - -
Germany 24,946 297 3.5% 19.9 days ~41,000
Ghana 3,560 112 4.5% 15.9 days ~6,600
Greece 33,078 3189 4.5% 15.9 days ~61,000
Guatemala 34,992 1918 1.0% 71.6 days ~40,000
Guinea 948 70 4.7% 15.1 days ~1,800
Guinea-Bissau 296 147 2.0% 35.8 days ~400
Haiti 5,907 512 0.0% - ~5,900
Honduras 180,617 17955 0.4% 177.1 days ~190,000
Hong Kong 69 9 -1.0% - -
Hungary 33,804 3508 -0.9% - ~30,000
Iceland 371 1080 24.5% 3.2 days ~7,900
India 415,755 298 -0.3% - ~400,000
Indonesia 569,901 2062 2.5% 28 days ~810,000
Iran 336,936 3962 2.0% 34.2 days ~450,000
Iraq 123,145 2996 0.8% 86.5 days ~140,000
Ireland 20,732 4153 5.5% 12.8 days ~44,000
Israel 10,166 1090 7.2% 10 days ~27,000
Italy 58,752 973 4.3% 16.5 days ~110,000
Japan 34,280 272 6.8% 10.5 days ~86,000
Jordan 7,489 727 -0.4% - ~7,100
Kazakhstan 69,436 3655 5.2% 13.6 days ~140,000
Kenya 7,175 131 1.9% 36 days ~9,400
Kuwait 15,014 3465 -1.8% - ~12,000
Kyrgyzstan 20,640 3113 0.2% - ~21,000
Latvia 537 288 0.0% - ~500
Lebanon 10,062 1481 5.8% 12.3 days ~22,000
Lithuania 7,611 2835 1.3% 54.5 days ~9,100
Luxembourg 1,474 2318 -0.5% - ~1,400
Macedonia 265 127 4.9% 14.5 days ~500
Madagascar 643 23 -0.8% - ~600
Malaysia 147,386 4497 4.1% 17.4 days ~260,000
Maldives 2,618 4761 0.3% 239.6 days ~2,700
Mali 883 42 -12.7% - -
Mauritania 1,690 354 4.7% 15.2 days ~3,200
Mayotte 16,327 58465 0.0% - ~16,000
Mexico 351,298 2697 1.5% 46.2 days ~430,000
Moldova 897 223 0.5% 141.8 days ~960
Morocco 19,658 526 7.7% 9.3 days ~56,000
Nepal 27,661 933 0.7% 99.6 days ~30,000
Netherlands 152,785 8897 7.0% 10.2 days ~400,000
New Zealand 80 16 6.8% 10.6 days ~200
Nicaragua 4,689 700 0.0% - ~4,700
Niger 105 4 0.6% 113.7 days -
Nigeria 3,712 18 6.2% 11.5 days ~8,600
Norway 45,712 8368 0.4% 159.1 days ~49,000
Oman 21,792 4164 0.0% - ~22,000
Pakistan 53,623 238 3.1% 22.8 days ~82,000
Panama 13,089 2987 -0.3% - ~13,000
Paraguay 23,661 3278 -2.3% - ~17,000
Philippines 55,069 496 2.2% 31.3 days ~75,000
Poland 153,541 4061 0.0% - ~150,000
Portugal 53,534 5265 1.8% 39.5 days ~68,000
Qatar 1,621 577 0.6% 124.8 days ~1,800
Romania 674 35 0.8% 82.2 days ~760
Russia 476,222 3262 0.5% 138.4 days ~510,000
Saudi Arabia 10,742 304 -0.2% - ~10,000
Senegal 9,986 581 11.4% 6.4 days ~45,000
Serbia 2,788 320 5.1% 13.9 days ~5,600
Singapore 1,301 221 16.8% 4.5 days ~12,000
Slovakia 407 75 2.5% 28.4 days ~600
Slovenia 818 393 2.9% 24 days ~1,200
Somalia 7,122 436 0.1% - ~7,200
South Africa 153,778 2561 -3.0% - ~100,000
South Korea 19,461 379 3.2% 21.9 days ~30,000
Spain 515,751 11027 6.4% 11.2 days ~1,200,000
Sri Lanka 23,403 1088 2.5% 28.2 days ~33,000
Sudan 3,495 78 0.0% - ~3,500
Sweden 7,824 770 0.3% 202.4 days ~8,200
Switzerland 10,388 1192 5.6% 12.7 days ~22,000
Thailand 143,744 2054 4.1% 17.1 days ~250,000
Tunisia 86,389 7235 -0.1% - ~85,000
Turkey 113,622 1333 3.2% 21.9 days ~180,000
Uganda 16,152 343 -3.9% - ~9,200
Ukraine 10,966 252 0.5% 144 days ~12,000
United Arab Emirates 20,461 2044 0.2% - ~21,000
United Kingdom 1,073,992 15739 4.4% 16.1 days ~2,000,000
United States 5,158,542 15495 0.6% 122.7 days ~5,600,000
Uzbekistan 4,664 137 1.5% 46.2 days ~5,800
Venezuela 13,130 463 -0.6% - ~12,000
Viet Nam 65,772 670 9.7% 7.5 days ~240,000
The World** 13,736,054 1744 1.3% 53.7 days ~16,000,000
Zambia 8,223 435 -4.6% - ~4,300
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.