COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Wednesday, September 30

Yesterday's
active cases

7,682,081

Recent
growth rate
*

0.4%

Doubling
time

195.6 days

2 week
forecast

~8,100,000

Optimistic
2 wk forecast

~2,700,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. The "Optimsistic" forecast might be achievable if we all continue our efforts to isolate. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Recent Growth Rate calculation has been revised for accuracy.
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If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast Optimistic forecast
Afghanistan 5,050 130 0.2% - ~5,200 ~1,700
Algeria 13,579 310 0.4% 173.7 days ~14,000 ~4,800
Andorra 648 8387 6.3% 11.3 days ~1,500 ~500
Argentina 134,233 2970 1.4% 50.3 days ~160,000 ~55,000
Armenia 5,094 1719 3.6% 19.8 days ~8,300 ~2,900
Australia 1,497 59 -2.7% - ~1,000 ***
Austria 8,329 925 0.4% 185.5 days ~8,800 ~2,900
Azerbaijan 1,702 168 -1.1% - ~1,500 ***
Bahrain 5,909 3473 -1.8% - ~4,600 ***
Bangladesh 83,126 505 -0.6% - ~77,000 ***
Belarus 3,112 329 7.5% 9.6 days ~8,600 ~3,100
Belgium 86,065 7426 2.0% 34.5 days ~110,000 ~39,000
Bolivia 31,999 2741 -0.6% - ~29,000 ***
Bosnia and Herzegovina 6,061 1847 -1.3% - ~5,100 ***
Brazil 502,219 2363 -1.2% - ~420,000 ***
Bulgaria 5,245 755 1.7% 40.7 days ~6,700 ~2,200
Cameroon 980 37 3.3% 21.3 days ~1,500 ~500
Canada 13,933 369 4.1% 17.3 days ~24,000 ~8,500
Central African Republic 2,904 601 0.0% - ~2,900 ***
Chile 13,781 721 0.1% - ~14,000 ~4,700
China 184 0 1.2% 59.8 days ~200 -
Colombia 64,060 1259 -5.6% - ~28,000 ***
Costa Rica 43,021 8445 0.8% 85.5 days ~48,000 ~16,000
Côte d'Ivoire 308 12 -8.1% - - ***
Croatia 1,158 282 -4.1% - ~600 ***
Cuba 543 48 -0.6% - ~500 ***
Cyprus 352 292 5.3% 13.4 days ~730 ~300
Czech Republic 34,448 3217 4.4% 16.2 days ~63,000 ~22,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 230 3 -2.5% - - ***
Denmark 6,494 1121 3.7% 18.9 days ~11,000 ~3,700
Djibouti ***
Dominican Republic 22,801 2102 -0.9% - ~20,000 ***
Ecuador 12,141 688 5.9% 12.1 days ~27,000 ~9,500
Egypt 1,071 10 -18.1% - - ***
El Salvador 4,457 687 -1.0% - ~3,900 ***
Equatorial Guinea 178 127 -2.6% - - ***
Estonia 687 518 4.6% 15.5 days ~1,300 ~400
Ethiopia 42,441 369 0.8% 83.4 days ~48,000 ~16,000
Finland 1,697 306 7.5% 9.6 days ~4,700 ~1,700
France 422,470 6472 2.9% 24.6 days ~630,000 ~210,000
French Guiana 294 984 -0.3% - ~300 ***
Gabon 743 334 -0.7% - ~700 ***
Germany 26,710 319 3.0% 23.7 days ~40,000 ~14,000
Ghana 530 17 -0.5% - ~500 ***
Greece 7,746 743 5.2% 13.6 days ~16,000 ~5,500
Guatemala 8,076 451 1.0% 73.2 days ~9,200 ~3,100
Guinea 608 46 1.5% 45.9 days ~750 ~300
Guinea-Bissau 736 374 0.0% - ~740 ~200
Haiti 1,756 154 -1.4% - ~1,400 ***
Honduras 46,279 4672 -0.2% - ~45,000 ***
Hong Kong 168 22 -2.5% - - ***
Hungary 19,637 2033 4.7% 15.1 days ~37,000 ~13,000
Iceland 524 1536 10.5% 6.9 days ~2,100 ~790
India 941,356 682 -0.6% - ~860,000 ***
Indonesia 61,686 226 0.8% 92.2 days ~69,000 ~23,000
Iran 48,924 582 2.8% 24.9 days ~72,000 ~25,000
Iraq 60,356 1501 0.6% 115.2 days ~66,000 ~22,000
Ireland 10,573 2141 3.5% 20.3 days ~17,000 ~5,900
Israel 67,594 7809 2.5% 28.4 days ~95,000 ~32,000
Italy 50,630 837 1.6% 44.1 days ~63,000 ~21,000
Japan 5,478 43 -0.8% - ~4,900 ***
Kazakhstan 3,329 177 -1.1% - ~2,800 ***
Kenya 12,931 240 0.4% 174.3 days ~14,000 ~4,600
Kuwait 7,912 1853 -0.8% - ~7,000 ***
Kyrgyzstan 2,697 413 -0.3% - ~2,600 ***
Latvia 385 204 5.1% 13.9 days ~780 ~300
Lebanon 20,906 3063 2.4% 29.5 days ~29,000 ~9,900
Lithuania 2,146 788 4.3% 16.4 days ~3,900 ~1,300
Luxembourg 1,171 1871 1.8% 38.7 days ~1,500 ~500
Macedonia 2,248 1079 0.3% 217 days ~2,300 ~780
Madagascar 1,009 36 -0.6% - ~930 ***
Malaysia 1,062 33 5.1% 13.8 days ~2,100 ~750
Maldives 1,123 2078 -2.5% - ~780 ***
Mali 527 26 0.5% 148.3 days ~600 -
Mauritania 216 46 -1.7% - - ***
Mayotte 537 1968 0.0% - ~500 -
Mexico 129,836 1007 0.5% 151.7 days ~140,000 ~46,000
Moldova 12,140 3009 1.4% 48.2 days ~15,000 ~5,000
Morocco 18,778 509 0.7% 106 days ~21,000 ~6,900
Nepal 20,396 700 2.0% 34.8 days ~27,000 ~9,100
New Zealand 55 11 -2.3% - - ***
Nicaragua 2,106 318 0.7% 103.1 days ~2,300 ~770
Niger ***
Nigeria 7,599 37 0.3% 207 days ~8,000 ~2,600
Norway 2,451 452 4.6% 15.5 days ~4,600 ~1,600
Oman 9,122 1786 2.6% 27.1 days ~13,000 ~4,400
Pakistan 8,702 39 2.9% 24.3 days ~13,000 ~4,400
Panama 21,287 4934 -0.6% - ~19,000 ***
Paraguay 15,512 2175 0.6% 113.8 days ~17,000 ~5,600
Peru 102,447 3107 -2.0% - ~78,000 ***
Philippines 50,925 465 3.3% 21.2 days ~80,000 ~28,000
Poland 18,524 489 4.2% 16.7 days ~33,000 ~12,000
Portugal 24,561 2409 1.7% 40.1 days ~31,000 ~11,000
Qatar 2,871 997 -0.3% - ~2,800 ***
Romania 19,986 1039 1.1% 64.3 days ~23,000 ~7,800
Russia 194,861 1335 1.2% 59.7 days ~230,000 ~77,000
Saudi Arabia 10,906 313 -3.4% - ~6,700 ***
Senegal 2,300 137 -3.4% - ~1,400 ***
Serbia 1,194 137 7.3% 9.9 days ~3,200 ~1,100
Singapore 249 43 -3.4% - - ***
Slovakia 5,200 952 5.7% 12.5 days ~11,000 ~4,000
Slovenia 1,656 797 3.3% 21.5 days ~2,600 ~890
Somalia 543 34 0.7% 98.9 days ~600 ~200
South Africa 49,385 833 -1.2% - ~42,000 ***
South Korea 1,822 36 -3.1% - ~1,200 ***
Sri Lanka 131 6 -2.9% - - ***
Sudan 6,040 138 0.1% - ~6,100 ~2,000
Switzerland 8,102 936 3.3% 21.6 days ~13,000 ~4,400
Thailand 130 2 1.0% 68.1 days - -
Tunisia 12,127 1026 8.4% 8.6 days ~38,000 ~14,000
Turkey 30,638 363 0.9% 73.7 days ~35,000 ~12,000
Uganda 3,909 85 1.2% 57.9 days ~4,600 ~1,600
Ukraine 110,617 2529 1.8% 39.1 days ~140,000 ~48,000
United Arab Emirates 10,136 1025 0.0% - ~10,000 ***
United States 2,546,678 7694 0.0% - ~2,500,000 ***
Uzbekistan 2,918 87 -1.2% - ~2,500 ***
Venezuela 9,568 336 -0.6% - ~8,800 ***
The World** 7,682,081 988 0.4% 195.6 days ~8,100,000 ~2,700,000
Zambia 446 24 0.8% 82 days ~500 -
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.