COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Sunday, January 16

Yesterday's
active cases

54,704,303

Recent
growth rate
*

4.2%

Doubling
time

16.7 days

2 week
forecast

~98,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 5,353 135 0.4% 166.2 days ~5,700
Algeria 64,633 1448 0.3% 232.2 days ~67,000
Andorra 5,716 73863 4.1% 17.2 days ~10,000
Angola 8,581 253 -6.0% - ~3,600
Argentina 933,562 20471 8.0% 9 days ~2,700,000
Armenia 5,841 1968 1.9% 37.1 days ~7,600
Australia 1,179,328 45727 14.5% 5.1 days ~7,800,000
Austria 126,064 13919 10.5% 6.9 days ~510,000
Azerbaijan 8,263 808 1.4% 48.2 days ~10,000
Bahrain 18,711 10635 10.1% 7.2 days ~72,000
Bangladesh 31,753 191 12.0% 6.1 days ~150,000
Belarus 1,318 140 0.2% - ~1,300
Belgium 442,439 38013 3.5% 20.4 days ~710,000
Bolivia 130,463 11029 5.2% 13.8 days ~260,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 107,226 32885 1.5% 46.8 days ~130,000
Brazil 643,885 3008 14.4% 5.1 days ~4,300,000
Bulgaria 150,381 21804 2.6% 27.3 days ~210,000
Cambodia 669 39 2.2% 32.2 days ~910
Cameroon 1,763 65 0.0% - ~1,800
Canada 360,694 9475 -0.5% - ~340,000
Central African Republic 6,352 1293 0.5% 139.9 days ~6,800
Chile 79,404 4119 7.2% 10 days ~210,000
China 3,451 2 0.5% 136.5 days ~3,700
Colombia 194,625 3785 6.7% 10.8 days ~480,000
Costa Rica 38,278 7447 11.8% 6.2 days ~180,000
Côte d'Ivoire 4,687 173 -7.6% - ~1,500
Croatia 55,046 13491 4.0% 17.5 days ~96,000
Cuba 15,320 1353 15.5% 4.8 days ~120,000
Cyprus 98,724 81187 4.2% 16.9 days ~180,000
Czech Republic 124,379 11593 2.6% 26.5 days ~180,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 30,151 327 0.6% 108.5 days ~33,000
Denmark 262,200 45111 1.4% 49.3 days ~320,000
Djibouti 668 667 10.1% 7.2 days ~2,600
Dominican Republic 34,878 3184 4.9% 14.4 days ~68,000
Ecuador
Egypt 44,225 424 0.1% - ~45,000
El Salvador 3,003 461 1.2% 56.7 days ~3,600
Equatorial Guinea 1,602 1106 12.2% 6 days ~8,100
Estonia 27,046 20375 4.4% 15.9 days ~50,000
Ethiopia 77,369 657 0.7% 95.3 days ~86,000
Finland 323,411 58281 2.6% 26.9 days ~460,000
France 4,778,039 73041 7.1% 10.1 days ~13,000,000
French Guiana 55,673 181783 2.6% 26.8 days ~80,000
Gabon 5,323 2338 0.7% 93 days ~5,900
Germany 887,503 10560 3.3% 21.6 days ~1,400,000
Ghana 9,020 284 -3.1% - ~5,800
Greece 355,212 34244 -0.4% - ~340,000
Guadeloupe 70,956 177305 0.0% - ~71,000
Guatemala 20,849 1143 11.8% 6.2 days ~100,000
Guinea 3,867 287 3.3% 21.6 days ~6,100
Guinea-Bissau 515 256 14.1% 5.3 days ~3,300
Haiti 2,411 209 1.4% 50.8 days ~2,900
Honduras 246,696 24524 0.1% - ~250,000
Hong Kong 490 65 4.1% 17.1 days ~860
Hungary 128,268 13311 2.3% 30.7 days ~180,000
Iceland 9,670 28158 -0.3% - ~9,300
India 1,550,349 1113 17.1% 4.4 days ~14,000,000
Indonesia 8,463 31 5.6% 12.6 days ~18,000
Iran 24,064 283 0.4% 158.1 days ~26,000
Iraq 16,982 413 15.4% 4.8 days ~130,000
Ireland 452,188 90582 4.4% 16.1 days ~830,000
Israel 273,072 29281 14.8% 5 days ~1,900,000
Italy 2,470,847 40926 4.8% 14.9 days ~4,700,000
Jamaica 40,681 13679 3.6% 19.6 days ~67,000
Japan 87,863 697 31.2% 2.6 days ~3,900,000
Jordan 25,283 2454 1.0% 70.3 days ~29,000
Kazakhstan 54,157 2851 15.0% 5 days ~380,000
Kenya 30,493 555 -3.0% - ~20,000
Kuwait 39,154 9037 16.4% 4.6 days ~330,000
Kyrgyzstan 5,123 773 8.7% 8.3 days ~16,000
Laos 116,045 15726 0.8% 87 days ~130,000
Latvia 24,824 13306 7.2% 10 days ~65,000
Lebanon 122,287 17996 6.5% 10.9 days ~300,000
Libya 7,021 1008 -0.6% - ~6,500
Lithuania 40,125 14946 3.2% 21.8 days ~63,000
Luxembourg 20,843 32773 5.1% 13.9 days ~42,000
Macedonia 15,576 7477 7.3% 9.9 days ~42,000
Madagascar 3,588 126 -3.4% - ~2,200
Malaysia 40,785 1244 0.3% 240.5 days ~42,000
Maldives 4,890 8893 8.4% 8.6 days ~15,000
Mali 4,340 208 2.0% 35.3 days ~5,700
Martinique 58,684 156500 0.0% - ~59,000
Mauritania 12,180 2554 8.7% 8.3 days ~39,000
Mayotte 30,607 109600 3.0% 23.5 days ~46,000
Mexico 604,016 4637 4.8% 14.9 days ~1,200,000
Moldova 10,964 2724 10.1% 7.2 days ~42,000
Morocco 55,971 1499 10.1% 7.2 days ~220,000
Nepal 21,584 728 16.9% 4.4 days ~190,000
Netherlands 596,001 34707 3.0% 23.1 days ~910,000
New Zealand 1,005 201 -1.3% - ~840
Nicaragua 13,124 1958 0.0% - ~13,000
Niger 756 30 6.7% 10.6 days ~1,900
Nigeria 23,768 113 -0.2% - ~23,000
Norway 414,456 75867 2.3% 30.4 days ~570,000
Oman 4,761 910 9.5% 7.6 days ~17,000
Pakistan 28,112 125 8.6% 8.4 days ~89,000
Panama 54,768 12500 8.4% 8.6 days ~170,000
Paraguay 30,024 4159 16.8% 4.5 days ~270,000
Philippines 280,813 2530 19.4% 3.9 days ~3,400,000
Poland 416,092 11006 0.4% 162.8 days ~440,000
Portugal 309,633 30454 2.9% 23.9 days ~460,000
Qatar 39,166 13949 13.2% 5.6 days ~220,000
Romania 60,499 3166 17.1% 4.4 days ~550,000
Russia 617,786 4232 -0.8% - ~550,000
Saudi Arabia 39,506 1118 10.7% 6.8 days ~160,000
Senegal 5,035 293 10.2% 7.2 days ~20,000
Serbia 131,734 15137 12.6% 5.8 days ~690,000
Singapore 7,086 1202 4.0% 17.8 days ~12,000
Slovakia 31,991 5857 -1.5% - ~26,000
Slovenia 61,603 29628 10.4% 7 days ~240,000
Somalia 9,744 597 0.0% - ~9,700
South Africa 102,476 1707 -2.1% - ~76,000
South Korea 101,039 1969 0.5% 126.6 days ~110,000
Spain 2,752,905 58857 5.3% 13.5 days ~5,600,000
Sri Lanka 12,411 577 3.9% 18.2 days ~21,000
Sudan 7,297 163 3.5% 20.1 days ~12,000
Sweden 313,666 30869 2.8% 24.8 days ~460,000
Switzerland 494,091 56682 2.4% 29.5 days ~690,000
Thailand 77,365 1106 8.3% 8.7 days ~240,000
Tunisia 51,455 4309 18.7% 4.1 days ~560,000
Turkey 721,833 8469 4.6% 15.6 days ~1,300,000
Uganda 55,463 1176 1.4% 49.5 days ~67,000
Ukraine 98,601 2268 0.9% 81.1 days ~110,000
United Arab Emirates 40,780 4075 5.4% 13.1 days ~86,000
United Kingdom 3,695,847 54162 1.4% 50.9 days ~4,500,000
United States 22,732,045 68282 3.4% 20.5 days ~37,000,000
Uzbekistan 4,377 129 15.3% 4.9 days ~32,000
Venezuela 10,255 362 8.8% 8.2 days ~33,000
Viet Nam 254,418 2591 -1.5% - ~210,000
The World** 54,704,303 6947 4.2% 16.7 days ~98,000,000
Zambia 18,859 998 -6.1% - ~7,800
Zimbabwe 14,603 969 -5.1% - ~7,000
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.