COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Saturday, December 05

Yesterday's
active cases

18,889,836

Recent
growth rate
*

1.0%

Doubling
time

69 days

2 week
forecast

~22,000,000

Optimistic
2 wk forecast

~7,300,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. The "Optimsistic" forecast might be achievable if we all continue our efforts to isolate. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Recent Growth Rate calculation has been revised for accuracy.
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If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast Optimistic forecast
Afghanistan 8,194 210 1.2% 58.1 days ~9,700 ~3,300
Algeria 28,159 642 1.3% 52 days ~34,000 ~11,000
Andorra 748 9681 -0.6% - ~700 ***
Argentina 133,164 2946 -0.3% - ~130,000 ***
Armenia 22,425 7568 -1.7% - ~18,000 ***
Australia 1,411 55 0.1% - ~1,400 ~500
Austria 49,819 5532 -3.6% - ~30,000 ***
Azerbaijan 52,649 5193 4.9% 14.4 days ~100,000 ~36,000
Bahrain 1,549 910 0.3% 211.6 days ~1,600 ~500
Bangladesh 76,268 463 -0.3% - ~73,000 ***
Belarus 21,622 2288 0.9% 75.7 days ~25,000 ~8,200
Belgium 529,247 45666 0.4% 158.4 days ~560,000 ~190,000
Bolivia 12,189 1044 -2.0% - ~9,100 ***
Bosnia and Herzegovina 32,383 9870 0.0% - ~33,000 ~11,000
Brazil 614,601 2891 2.9% 24.5 days ~910,000 ~310,000
Bulgaria 94,480 13597 1.0% 70.9 days ~110,000 ~36,000
Cameroon 965 36 2.4% 28.8 days ~1,400 ~500
Canada 69,977 1854 2.0% 34.6 days ~93,000 ~31,000
Central African Republic 2,931 607 0.0% - ~2,900 ~970
Chile 10,034 525 1.8% 39.7 days ~13,000 ~4,300
China 271 0 -1.1% - ~200 ***
Colombia 74,150 1457 2.3% 30.7 days ~100,000 ~35,000
Costa Rica 46,123 9054 -0.6% - ~42,000 ***
Côte d'Ivoire 226 9 1.6% 42.7 days ~300 -
Croatia 24,190 5892 2.4% 28.7 days ~34,000 ~12,000
Cuba 616 54 3.9% 18.2 days ~1,100 ~400
Cyprus 9,698 8032 3.2% 22.2 days ~15,000 ~5,200
Czech Republic 59,674 5572 -3.2% - ~38,000 ***
Democratic Republic of the Congo 1,191 13 7.3% 9.8 days ~3,200 ~1,200
Denmark 17,244 2977 1.4% 50.4 days ~21,000 ~7,000
Djibouti ***
Dominican Republic 28,168 2597 1.8% 39.5 days ~36,000 ~12,000
Ecuador 12,982 736 8.5% 8.5 days ~41,000 ~15,000
Egypt 7,660 75 4.0% 17.7 days ~13,000 ~4,600
El Salvador 2,290 353 1.0% 70.2 days ~2,600 ~880
Equatorial Guinea 51 36 1.5% 46.8 days - -
Estonia 5,265 3969 2.2% 32.4 days ~7,100 ~2,400
Ethiopia 31,738 276 -1.4% - ~26,000 ***
Finland 8,250 1489 6.3% 11.3 days ~19,000 ~6,900
France 2,045,433 31336 0.5% 143.1 days ~2,200,000 ~730,000
French Guiana 1,268 4245 2.2% 31.9 days ~1,700 ~600
Gabon 88 40 -0.8% - - ***
Germany 312,992 3736 0.1% - ~320,000 ~110,000
Ghana 847 27 1.6% 42.9 days ~1,100 ~400
Greece 100,392 9632 1.9% 37.6 days ~130,000 ~44,000
Guatemala 7,308 408 0.7% 102.1 days ~8,000 ~2,700
Guinea 840 64 -0.9% - ~740 ***
Guinea-Bissau 70 36 0.0% - - -
Haiti 990 87 -0.9% - ~880 ***
Honduras 57,869 5843 0.4% 175.3 days ~61,000 ~20,000
Hong Kong 1,125 150 10.2% 7.2 days ~4,400 ~1,600
Hungary 164,018 16978 2.3% 30.2 days ~230,000 ~77,000
Iceland 212 621 2.2% 31.2 days ~300 -
India 410,679 298 -1.1% - ~350,000 ***
Indonesia 80,023 293 2.0% 34.9 days ~110,000 ~36,000
Iran 259,034 3084 1.6% 42.9 days ~320,000 ~110,000
Iraq 58,463 1453 0.2% - ~60,000 ~20,000
Ireland 48,041 9729 0.5% 127.3 days ~52,000 ~17,000
Israel 12,043 1391 3.5% 20.3 days ~19,000 ~6,700
Italy 757,702 12532 -0.4% - ~720,000 ***
Japan 21,816 172 1.7% 40.9 days ~28,000 ~9,300
Kazakhstan 14,073 749 2.3% 30.3 days ~19,000 ~6,600
Kenya 17,633 328 1.2% 59.8 days ~21,000 ~7,000
Kuwait 3,883 909 -5.0% - ~1,900 ***
Kyrgyzstan 6,975 1069 -0.7% - ~6,300 ***
Latvia 17,902 9491 4.4% 16.2 days ~33,000 ~11,000
Lebanon 47,198 6915 0.8% 88.4 days ~53,000 ~18,000
Lithuania 41,232 15146 3.2% 22.2 days ~64,000 ~22,000
Luxembourg 8,643 13807 1.3% 55.2 days ~10,000 ~3,500
Macedonia 22,212 10662 0.6% 111 days ~24,000 ~8,100
Madagascar 601 22 0.0% - ~600 ~200
Malaysia 10,799 334 -0.9% - ~9,500 ***
Maldives 897 1659 -1.6% - ~710 ***
Mali 1,468 72 1.9% 36.8 days ~1,900 ~600
Mauritania 1,187 255 11.1% 6.6 days ~5,200 ~1,900
Mayotte 2,168 7947 0.0% - ~2,200 ~720
Mexico 193,239 1499 1.3% 54.4 days ~230,000 ~78,000
Moldova 13,169 3265 2.5% 27.6 days ~19,000 ~6,400
Morocco 42,670 1156 -0.8% - ~38,000 ***
Nepal 15,447 530 -1.0% - ~13,000 ***
New Zealand 61 13 1.1% 62.5 days - -
Nicaragua 1,452 219 0.0% - ~1,500 ~500
Niger 412 17 9.6% 7.5 days ~1,500 ~600
Nigeria 2,981 14 -0.1% - ~2,900 ***
Norway 10,033 1851 3.1% 22.4 days ~15,000 ~5,300
Oman 7,028 1376 -0.3% - ~6,800 ***
Pakistan 51,507 233 2.3% 30 days ~71,000 ~24,000
Panama 20,402 4728 2.6% 26.9 days ~29,000 ~10,000
Paraguay 24,042 3371 1.5% 46.9 days ~30,000 ~10,000
Peru 30,707 931 -1.2% - ~26,000 ***
Philippines 28,491 260 4.0% 17.9 days ~49,000 ~17,000
Poland 356,074 9408 -2.4% - ~250,000 ***
Portugal 73,712 7229 -0.5% - ~68,000 ***
Qatar 2,532 879 -0.7% - ~2,300 ***
Romania 98,009 5095 -2.0% - ~73,000 ***
Russia 472,021 3234 0.0% - ~470,000 ~160,000
Saudi Arabia 4,158 119 -3.0% - ~2,700 ***
Senegal 254 15 19.0% 4 days ~2,900 ~1,200
Serbia 173,570 19865 5.3% 13.3 days ~360,000 ~130,000
Singapore 61 10 -2.1% - - ***
Slovakia 35,293 6464 -2.6% - ~24,000 ***
Slovenia 20,523 9872 0.0% - ~21,000 ~6,900
Somalia 924 58 0.0% - ~920 ~300
South Africa 43,391 732 2.6% 26.6 days ~63,000 ~21,000
South Korea 7,185 140 5.3% 13.4 days ~15,000 ~5,200
Sri Lanka 6,991 326 1.8% 39.1 days ~9,000 ~3,000
Sudan 6,592 150 1.8% 39.4 days ~8,400 ~2,900
Switzerland 78,604 9082 0.1% - ~80,000 ~27,000
Thailand 154 2 6.6% 10.8 days ~400 -
Tunisia 22,955 1942 0.7% 104.2 days ~25,000 ~8,400
Turkey 328,346 3893 14.1% 5.2 days ~2,100,000 ~800,000
Uganda 12,575 275 2.7% 26 days ~18,000 ~6,200
Ukraine 376,887 8618 1.1% 64.6 days ~440,000 ~150,000
United Arab Emirates 15,648 1582 4.0% 17.7 days ~27,000 ~9,400
United States 5,828,103 17607 1.5% 45.1 days ~7,200,000 ~2,400,000
Uzbekistan 2,120 63 0.1% - ~2,100 ~710
Venezuela 4,085 144 -0.5% - ~3,800 ***
The World** 18,889,836 2430 1.0% 69 days ~22,000,000 ~7,300,000
Zambia 348 19 -3.3% - ~200 ***
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.