COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Monday, March 01

Yesterday's
active cases

21,902,966

Recent
growth rate
*

-0.2%

Doubling
time

-

2 week
forecast

~21,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 3,956 102 -0.7% - ~3,600
Algeria 32,011 730 0.1% - ~32,000
Andorra 310 4012 -2.3% - ~200
Argentina 150,379 3327 0.1% - ~150,000
Armenia 5,472 1847 1.2% 59.3 days ~6,400
Australia 1,893 74 0.1% - ~1,900
Austria 20,464 2272 3.2% 22.2 days ~32,000
Azerbaijan 2,549 251 1.6% 43.3 days ~3,200
Bahrain 6,856 4029 -1.0% - ~5,900
Bangladesh 40,884 248 -0.8% - ~37,000
Belarus 7,335 776 -1.6% - ~5,800
Belgium 695,003 59968 0.4% 190.5 days ~730,000
Bolivia 44,366 3801 0.0% - ~44,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 10,061 3067 -0.9% - ~8,800
Brazil 885,208 4165 1.1% 64.8 days ~1,000,000
Bulgaria 31,302 4505 2.3% 31 days ~43,000
Cameroon 2,569 97 0.0% - ~2,600
Canada 30,731 814 -0.6% - ~28,000
Central African Republic
Chile 24,523 1283 0.5% 141.3 days ~26,000
China 218 0 -7.0% - -
Colombia 43,675 858 -1.2% - ~37,000
Costa Rica 24,442 4798 -1.7% - ~19,000
Côte d'Ivoire
Croatia 3,213 783 3.7% 19.2 days ~5,300
Cuba 4,215 372 -2.1% - ~3,100
Cyprus 32,419 26851 0.6% 120.4 days ~35,000
Czech Republic 147,584 13781 4.7% 15.1 days ~280,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 6,255 70 -2.4% - ~4,500
Denmark 6,653 1149 1.7% 40.4 days ~8,500
Djibouti 106 107 -0.2% - -
Dominican Republic 45,179 4165 -0.7% - ~41,000
Ecuador 22,446 1272 1.2% 57 days ~27,000
Egypt 30,844 301 0.4% 182.4 days ~33,000
El Salvador 2,700 416 -1.8% - ~2,100
Equatorial Guinea 292 208 4.2% 16.8 days ~500
Estonia 15,103 11385 3.1% 22.8 days ~23,000
Ethiopia 21,849 190 2.5% 28 days ~31,000
Finland 10,930 1973 4.0% 17.8 days ~19,000
France 3,414,646 52313 0.7% 104.5 days ~3,700,000
French Guiana 6,547 21920 0.0% - ~6,500
Gabon 1,338 601 0.7% 100.5 days ~1,500
Germany 131,207 1566 -0.3% - ~130,000
Ghana 5,444 175 -2.5% - ~3,800
Greece 18,878 1811 4.2% 16.8 days ~34,000
Guatemala 6,638 371 -0.4% - ~6,300
Guinea 1,006 77 7.4% 9.7 days ~2,700
Guinea-Bissau 601 305 1.8% 38 days ~780
Haiti 2,487 218 -0.3% - ~2,400
Honduras 99,166 10012 0.4% 158.5 days ~110,000
Hong Kong 271 36 -1.2% - ~200
Hungary 92,497 9575 1.7% 42 days ~120,000
Iceland
India 170,293 123 2.2% 32.2 days ~230,000
Indonesia 155,765 569 -0.4% - ~150,000
Iran 177,971 2119 0.7% 100.9 days ~200,000
Iraq 46,152 1147 3.7% 19.1 days ~77,000
Ireland 191,909 38865 0.3% 203.5 days ~200,000
Israel 36,645 4234 -1.9% - ~28,000
Italy 422,367 6986 1.1% 62.9 days ~490,000
Japan 14,561 115 -3.0% - ~9,500
Kazakhstan 13,726 731 0.2% - ~14,000
Kenya 17,439 324 0.8% 83.9 days ~20,000
Kuwait 10,560 2473 -0.5% - ~9,800
Kyrgyzstan 1,586 243 -0.9% - ~1,400
Latvia 9,313 4937 -0.2% - ~9,000
Lebanon 78,768 11540 -1.0% - ~68,000
Lithuania 10,785 3962 -0.7% - ~9,700
Luxembourg 3,310 5288 4.2% 16.8 days ~5,900
Macedonia 8,417 4040 3.2% 22 days ~13,000
Madagascar 238 9 0.0% - ~200
Malaysia 26,205 810 -3.9% - ~15,000
Maldives 2,482 4592 0.2% 279.8 days ~2,600
Mali 1,621 80 -0.2% - ~1,600
Mauritania 203 44 -2.8% - -
Mayotte 13,788 50540 1.2% 60.6 days ~16,000
Mexico 268,869 2085 0.3% 264.5 days ~280,000
Moldova 15,326 3799 3.9% 18 days ~26,000
Morocco 5,985 162 -4.2% - ~3,300
Nepal 962 33 -0.8% - ~860
New Zealand 65 13 2.5% 27.9 days -
Nicaragua 2,047 309 0.0% - ~2,000
Niger 318 13 -0.3% - ~300
Nigeria 19,982 97 -0.9% - ~18,000
Norway 6,601 1218 6.6% 10.9 days ~16,000
Oman 7,467 1462 1.0% 72.3 days ~8,500
Pakistan 21,836 99 -1.0% - ~19,000
Panama 8,857 2053 -2.3% - ~6,400
Paraguay 22,858 3205 0.5% 128.5 days ~25,000
Peru 51,570 1564 -0.6% - ~48,000
Philippines 29,763 272 1.7% 40.8 days ~38,000
Poland 240,388 6352 1.1% 65.6 days ~280,000
Portugal 69,268 6793 -2.4% - ~49,000
Qatar 9,785 3396 -0.2% - ~9,600
Romania 41,292 2146 1.9% 36.9 days ~54,000
Russia 348,160 2386 -0.9% - ~310,000
Saudi Arabia 2,584 74 0.2% - ~2,600
Senegal 4,754 284 -0.4% - ~4,500
Serbia 54,469 6234 7.8% 9.2 days ~160,000
Singapore 84 14 -3.5% - -
Slovakia 45,594 8351 6.5% 11 days ~110,000
Slovenia 11,035 5308 1.7% 41.1 days ~14,000
Somalia 3,210 202 7.5% 9.5 days ~8,900
South Africa 33,141 559 -2.4% - ~24,000
South Korea 7,376 144 -0.8% - ~6,600
Sri Lanka 3,683 172 -5.4% - ~1,700
Sudan 3,564 81 0.2% - ~3,700
Switzerland 37,110 4288 -2.1% - ~28,000
Thailand 740 11 -2.8% - ~500
Tunisia 27,270 2307 -0.8% - ~24,000
Turkey 100,785 1195 2.1% 33.9 days ~130,000
Uganda 25,357 554 0.0% - ~26,000
Ukraine 151,844 3472 2.0% 35.2 days ~200,000
United Arab Emirates 9,078 918 -2.1% - ~6,800
United States 9,035,262 27297 -0.3% - ~8,700,000
Uzbekistan 822 25 -0.7% - ~750
Venezuela 6,938 244 -0.1% - ~6,800
The World** 21,902,966 2817 -0.2% - ~21,000,000
Zambia 2,945 160 -7.3% - ~1,000
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.