COVID-19 two week forecastfor The World

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of the world.

Active case forecast -
Thursday, April 15

Yesterday's
active cases

24,230,045

Recent
growth rate
*

0.7%

Doubling
time

102.7 days

2 week
forecast

~27,000,000

The 2-Week forecast is the number of active cases we'll have if they keep growing at the same rate seen over the last week. View details

 

Forecast summaries by country

Forecasts are updated once per day, usually by 3am UTC. You can click on a country to see its detailed growth chart.

NEWS / UPDATES
• Removed "optimistic" forecast to simplify the charts / data.
Please share the site if you find it valuable!

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge.

Recent growth rate* legend

  • Extremely bad+ ( > 20% )
  • Very bad ( 10 - 20% )
  • Bad ( 3% - 10% )
  • Problematic ( 0 to 3% )
  • Somewhat good ( -3% - 0% )
  • Good! Keep it up! Err.. down! ( < -3% )

Not all columns are visible in mobile versions of the site due to space limitations.

What do each of these headings mean?

Active Cases: The number of people who currently have the virus and have not recovered or died. Some percentage of these people will require medical intervention so the larger this number is, the more strain there is on the medical system.

Prevalence: The number of people who currently have the virus in the country per million of population.

Recent Growth Rate: The 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.

Doubling Time: The time it will take for the number of active cases in the country to double at the Recent Growth Rate.

2 Week Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate doesn't change, how many cases will there be in the 1 and 2 week timeframes.

Optimistic Forecast: If the Recent Growth Rate were to consistently decline by an average of 1% per day, this is the number of active cases that would result. Once a country has a negative growth rate the Optimistic forecast is no longer as useful for comparison and so isn't calculated.

Country Active cases Prevalence
(active/1M)
Recent daily growth rate* Doubling time 2 week forecast
Afghanistan 2,979 77 2.6% 27 days ~4,300
Algeria 32,905 750 0.1% - ~33,000
Andorra 531 6872 -2.1% - ~400
Argentina 267,129 5910 3.7% 19.3 days ~440,000
Armenia 17,091 5768 0.3% 206.1 days ~18,000
Australia 2,152 84 0.1% - ~2,200
Austria 29,437 3268 -2.1% - ~22,000
Azerbaijan 32,052 3161 2.3% 30.3 days ~44,000
Bahrain 11,302 6642 1.4% 49.8 days ~14,000
Bangladesh 101,884 619 2.9% 24.6 days ~150,000
Belarus 7,283 771 0.1% - ~7,300
Belgium 847,073 73089 0.4% 189.5 days ~890,000
Bolivia 38,041 3259 0.1% - ~38,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina 34,786 10603 -0.7% - ~31,000
Brazil 1,144,613 5385 -1.1% - ~980,000
Bulgaria 68,707 9888 -0.2% - ~67,000
Cameroon 3,886 146 0.0% - ~3,900
Canada 80,201 2125 3.4% 20.8 days ~130,000
Central African Republic 495 102 8.1% 8.9 days ~1,500
Chile 42,785 2238 -0.5% - ~40,000
China 298 0 2.5% 28 days ~400
Colombia 99,717 1960 4.2% 16.8 days ~180,000
Costa Rica 26,239 5151 1.2% 59.5 days ~31,000
Côte d'Ivoire 284 11 -19.2% - -
Croatia 13,880 3381 2.1% 34.1 days ~18,000
Cuba 4,803 424 -0.8% - ~4,300
Cyprus 13,916 11526 0.7% 100.6 days ~15,000
Czech Republic 81,118 7575 -2.2% - ~60,000
Democratic Republic of the Congo 2,128 24 2.0% 35.1 days ~2,800
Denmark 8,400 1450 -0.9% - ~7,400
Djibouti 1,505 1523 -2.5% - ~1,100
Dominican Republic 38,572 3556 0.5% 130.5 days ~42,000
Ecuador 34,535 1957 4.3% 16.6 days ~62,000
Egypt 39,360 385 0.7% 96.9 days ~44,000
El Salvador 1,563 241 0.6% 113.5 days ~1,700
Equatorial Guinea 268 191 0.0% - ~300
Estonia 16,683 12576 -2.8% - ~11,000
Ethiopia 56,562 492 1.1% 64.7 days ~66,000
Finland 36,083 6512 1.1% 66 days ~42,000
France 4,734,905 72539 0.7% 106.6 days ~5,200,000
French Guiana 7,793 26091 1.1% 64.4 days ~9,100
Gabon 3,215 1444 1.2% 60.3 days ~3,800
Germany 265,869 3173 0.9% 79.8 days ~300,000
Ghana 1,413 45 -0.7% - ~1,300
Greece 33,873 3250 0.6% 107.4 days ~37,000
Guatemala 12,144 678 4.8% 14.8 days ~23,000
Guinea 2,348 179 1.1% 65.2 days ~2,700
Guinea-Bissau 535 272 -1.1% - ~500
Haiti 992 87 -1.8% - ~770
Honduras 115,750 11686 0.3% 263 days ~120,000
Hong Kong 167 22 -0.4% - -
Hungary 272,066 28163 0.9% 76.4 days ~310,000
Iceland 83 243 -4.0% - -
India 1,471,592 1066 7.3% 9.9 days ~3,900,000
Indonesia 108,384 396 -0.6% - ~99,000
Iran 339,433 4041 4.8% 14.9 days ~650,000
Iraq 102,695 2553 2.6% 27.2 days ~150,000
Ireland 213,929 43325 0.2% - ~220,000
Israel 3,008 348 -4.7% - ~1,500
Italy 514,660 8512 -1.1% - ~440,000
Japan 31,693 251 3.3% 21.1 days ~50,000
Kazakhstan 35,322 1881 3.2% 22.2 days ~55,000
Kenya 46,128 858 1.3% 54.5 days ~55,000
Kuwait 15,199 3559 1.0% 70.8 days ~17,000
Kyrgyzstan 2,992 459 2.7% 26.1 days ~4,300
Latvia 7,229 3833 0.6% 119.1 days ~7,800
Lebanon 82,346 12065 -0.5% - ~76,000
Lithuania 17,419 6399 2.0% 34.2 days ~23,000
Luxembourg 3,347 5347 -0.1% - ~3,300
Macedonia 20,106 9651 -0.3% - ~19,000
Madagascar 4,133 149 5.8% 12.3 days ~9,100
Malaysia 16,696 516 1.8% 39.2 days ~21,000
Maldives 2,636 4877 -1.5% - ~2,100
Mali 4,810 238 4.0% 17.8 days ~8,300
Mauritania 186 40 -4.4% - -
Mayotte 16,625 60939 0.1% - ~17,000
Mexico 260,602 2021 0.1% - ~260,000
Moldova 11,574 2869 -2.4% - ~8,300
Morocco 4,816 130 1.4% 48.2 days ~5,900
Nepal 4,056 139 9.3% 7.8 days ~14,000
New Zealand 101 21 5.9% 12.1 days ~200
Nicaragua 2,373 358 0.3% 225.8 days ~2,500
Niger 132 5 -2.3% - -
Nigeria 7,669 37 -0.2% - ~7,500
Norway 15,949 2942 4.1% 17.2 days ~28,000
Oman 18,181 3560 2.2% 32.4 days ~25,000
Pakistan 76,757 347 2.4% 28.9 days ~110,000
Panama 4,021 932 -1.8% - ~3,100
Paraguay 38,648 5419 1.3% 52.9 days ~46,000
Peru 18,988 576 -3.6% - ~11,000
Philippines 173,047 1579 5.5% 13 days ~370,000
Poland 331,385 8756 -1.8% - ~260,000
Portugal 25,457 2497 -0.2% - ~25,000
Qatar 21,227 7368 2.1% 32.9 days ~28,000
Romania 70,191 3649 -1.3% - ~59,000
Russia 270,986 1857 -0.3% - ~260,000
Saudi Arabia 8,935 257 3.9% 18.1 days ~15,000
Senegal 186 11 -3.6% - -
Serbia 74,741 8554 -2.0% - ~56,000
Singapore 297 51 1.8% 38.3 days ~400
Slovakia 107,009 19600 0.8% 92.1 days ~120,000
Slovenia 13,456 6473 -0.3% - ~13,000
Somalia 6,835 430 0.7% 100.8 days ~7,500
South Africa 21,188 357 -0.1% - ~21,000
South Korea 7,654 149 0.9% 75.4 days ~8,700
Sri Lanka 2,966 139 1.7% 40.8 days ~3,800
Sudan 4,043 92 0.0% - ~4,000
Switzerland 54,042 6244 2.3% 30.3 days ~74,000
Thailand 7,491 107 21.1% 3.6 days ~110,000
Tunisia 37,493 3172 1.9% 36.4 days ~49,000
Turkey 510,677 6055 3.8% 18.4 days ~870,000
Uganda 120 3 24.6% 3.2 days ~2,600
Ukraine 406,495 9295 1.1% 60.8 days ~480,000
United Arab Emirates 14,556 1472 0.5% 129.6 days ~16,000
United States 6,874,970 20770 0.0% - ~6,900,000
Uzbekistan 1,605 48 1.5% 47.7 days ~2,000
Venezuela 15,610 549 1.3% 55.5 days ~19,000
The World** 24,230,045 3116 0.7% 102.7 days ~27,000,000
Zambia 919 50 -2.4% - ~700
Notes:
* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.
** If you are puzzling over why the "World" projected numbers are not the sum of the individual countries' projections: Congratulations! Your mathematical curiosity has lead you to an instance of Simpson's Paradox! (If you like non-intuitive math, check it out!)
*** Once a country has a negative growth rate, the 'optimistic' forecast seems less useful for comparison and so is not calculated or charted.