COVID-19 two week forecast

How many active cases will there be
based on the recent daily growth?
Robinson projection of .

Active case forecast -
Sunday, January 16

active cases

growth rate


2 week

Yesterday, there were active cases in . Over the last week active cases declined by an average of every day. At this rate, in two weeks there would be active cases (a compared to yesterday's active cases).

But optimistically, if we continue with our isolating efforts this might reduce the growth rate in active cases by an average of 1% per day. In two weeks there would instead be active cases (still a in active cases compared to yesterday).

Covid management is safe and straight-forward: Vaccinate, ventilate and mask.

The chart shows total active cases each day. If the day-to-day change seems low, note that the 'new' cases were reduced by those who recovered or died.

What does this really mean?

This forecast for describes how many active cases the country will have in 2 weeks if the recent growth rate* remains the same.

To "flatten the curve" for our healthcare workers we must get the wiggly line on the left (the daily growth in active cases), below zero. Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge. We cannot cheat it.

The right side of the chart shows the recent growth rate forecast in red and an 'optimistic' forecast in orange. The optimistic rates are calculated as the recent growth rate, consistently reduced by 1% per day. This would be difficult to achieve but is possible if we are all committed to our isolating efforts.

If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.

* The Recent Growth Rate is the 7-day average (mean) in the daily growth of active cases over the most recent 9 days, dropping the highest and lowest values over that period. This smooths out anomalous spikes or drops in the daily numbers, caused when countries have to suddenly revise their numbers based on new methodologies or testing.