Active case forecast
Sunday, January 16
Yesterday, there were 2,470,847 active cases in Italy. Over the last week active cases grew by an average of 4.8% every day. At this rate, the number of active cases double every 14.9 days, and in two weeks there would be ~4,700,000 active cases (a 92% increase compared to yesterday's active cases).
Covid management is safe and straight-forward: Vaccinate, ventilate and mask.
The chart shows total active cases each day. If the day-to-day change seems low, note that the 'new' cases were reduced by those who recovered or died.
What does this really mean?
This forecast for Italy describes how many active cases the country will have in 2 weeks if the recent growth rate* remains the same.
To "flatten the curve" for our healthcare workers we must get the wiggly line on the left (the daily growth in active cases), below zero. Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge. We cannot cheat it.
If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.