Active case forecast
Tuesday, September 29
2 wk forecast
Yesterday, there were 12,787 active cases in Kenya. Over the last week active cases grew by an average of 0.3% every day. At this rate, the number of active cases double every 244.7 days, and in two weeks there would be ~13,000 active cases (a 4% increase compared to yesterday's active cases).
But optimistically, if we continue with our isolating efforts this might reduce the growth rate in active cases by an average of 1% per day. In two weeks there would instead be ~4,400 active cases (a 65% decline in active cases compared to yesterday).
Your efforts to isolate yourself and slow the spread of the virus matter!
The chart shows total active cases each day. If the day-to-day change seems low, note that the 'new' cases were reduced by those who recovered or died.
What does this really mean?
This forecast for Kenya describes how many active cases the country will have in 2 weeks if the recent growth rate* remains the same.
To "flatten the curve" for our healthcare workers we must get the wiggly line on the left (the daily growth in active cases), below zero. Only when the growth rate is negative have we even begun to recover. Even when the growth rate is below zero, we cannot back off on our efforts to suppress the virus, or it will resurge. We cannot cheat it.
The right side of the chart shows the recent growth rate forecast in red and an 'optimistic' forecast in orange. The optimistic rates are calculated as the recent growth rate, consistently reduced by 1% per day. This would be difficult to achieve but is possible if we are all committed to our isolating efforts.
If these numbers seem surprisingly large, I encourage you to read more about the math used to build this forecast.